[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 04 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 5 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.9 0844UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 162/116 162/116 164/118
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 4-May was at the R1 level,
with an M3.9 flare produced by AR3296 (N16E36, beta) at 4/0844UT.
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3293 (N13E22, beta-delta)
and AR3296 showed development over the UT day. These two regions
the most significant on the solar disk, AR3293 being the most
magnetically complex and AR3296 producing today's M3.9 flare.
Region AR3297 (N09E50, beta) is the largest region on the solar
disk and currently appears stable. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R1-R2 levels over 5-7 May. The M3.9 flare at 4/0844UT produced
an east directed CME visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery
from 4/0909UT, modelling suggests this CME has no geoeffective
component. A partial halo CME first visible at 4/1048UT in LASCO
C2 and STEREO-A imagery may have a geoeffective component but
analysis is ongoing. Several other CMEs were observed over the
UT-day but none are considered to be geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 4-May declined, ranging from 440 to 382
km/s, and is currently near 390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +1 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to slowly decline to background levels on 5-May with
an increase expected on 6-May due to a combination of high speed
wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole and a large
coronal hole in the southern hemisphere both approaching a geoeffective
location. If the halo CME at 4/1048UT has a geoeffective component
this will likely contribute to an increase in solar wind speed
on 6-May. Solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on 7-May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: G0
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Cocos Island 1 11100101
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 2 12100111
Learmonth 3 10200122
Alice Springs 2 11100111
Gingin 2 10100121
Canberra 1 11100011
Hobart 2 10200012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 3 00311011
Casey 5 11111123
Mawson 14 44311233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1011 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 5 G0
06 May 20 G0-G1, chance of G2
07 May 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 4-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 5-May. G0-G1 conditions, with a chance of G2
are expected on 6-May due to high speed wind stream effects from
an equatorial coronal hole and a large coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere both approaching a geoeffective location. If the halo
CME at 4/1048UT has a geoeffective component this will increase
the chance of G1-G2 conditions. G0 conditions, with a chance
of G1 are expected on 7-May due to ongoing coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 4-May. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 5-7 May, with a chance of mildly degraded conditions on
7-May due to possible geomagnetic activity on 6-May. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 84
Jun 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 93 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on
3 May and is current for 3-5 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 4-May in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values, with enhancements of up to 15% observed in the
Southern Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart and
Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 5-7 May, with a chance of mild
depressions on 7-May due to possible geomagnetic activity on
6-May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 200000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list