[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 03 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 4 09:31:15 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.2 0927UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.1 1014UT possible lower European
M7.2 1045UT probable lower European
M1.7 1235UT possible lower European
M2.2 1350UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 154/109 152/107 152/107
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 3-May was at the R2 level,
with an M7.2 flare at 3/1045UT and four R1 level flares, an M4.2
flare at 3/0927UT, an M3.1 flare at 3/1014UT, and M1.7 flare
at 3/1235UT and an M2.2 flare at 3/1350UT. All M-class flares
were produced by AR3293 (N13E36, beta-gamma-delta) There are
currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3293, AR3295 (N15W32, beta)
and AR3296 (N16E50, beta-delta) all showed spot development over
the UT day, with AR3296 exhibiting the most significant development.
AR3293 is the most significant sunspot region on the solar disk
due to its high magnetic complexity and history of flare activity.
Newly arrived region AR3297 (N08E62, beta) is the largest region
on the solar disk and currently appears stable. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region appeared
on the solar disk at around S19E47 on 3-May, with beta magnetic
characteristics. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 4-6 May. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered
geoeffective. A large, slow filament lift off is visible in SDO,
GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 3/1338UT in the northwest
quadrant from roughly N30W20 to N00W50. No associated CME is
visible in available coronagraph imagery, further analysis will
be performed when more imagery becomes available. The solar wind
speed on UT day 3-May declined, ranging from 515 to 402 km/s,
and is currently near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +3 to -2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to slowly decline to background levels over 4-5 May with an increase
expected on 6-May due to high speed wind stream effects from
an equatorial coronal hole combined with a large coronal hole
in the southern hemisphere both approaching a geoeffective location.
There is a slight chance of an increase in the first few hours
of 4-May due to a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed
on 30-Apr originally forecast to arrive on 3/1400UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: G0
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 1 00100201
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 2 10100102
Townsville 3 11110202
Learmonth 2 10100201
Alice Springs 2 01100201
Gingin 2 00100211
Canberra 0 00000101
Hobart 1 00000201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 7 13311212
Mawson 7 21110034
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3323 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 8 G0, slight chance of G1
05 May 5 G0
06 May 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 3-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 4-6 May. There is a slight chance of G1 early
on 4-May due to a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed
on 30-Apr originally forecast to arrive on 3/1400UT, and a chance
of G1 on 6-May due to high speed wind stream effects from an
equatorial coronal hole combined with a large coronal hole in
the southern hemisphere both approaching a geoeffective location.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 3-May. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 4-6 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 84
Jun 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 May 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on
3 May and is current for 3-5 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 3-May in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Perth during
local night hours, sporadic E was observed at Darwin during local
evening. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 4-6 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 497 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 134000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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