[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 02 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 3 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 156/110 154/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-May was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. AR3288 (S22W70, beta-gamma-delta)
is the most magnetically complex region on the solar disk and
was responsible for the majority of the C-class flares observed.
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3288 has shown some decay in its trailer spots
over the UT day. The leader spot of AR3293 (N13E49, beta-delta)
underwent spot growth. AR3296 (N15E63, beta) recently appeared
in the northeast quadrant and has since exhibited spot growth.
AR3297 (N08E75, alpha) recently rotated over the eastern limb
and appears stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level
over 03-05 May, with a chance of R2. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. A full halo CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 02/0500UT.
This CME is considered a farside event and therefore not geoeffective.
A narrow southwest directed CME visible from 02/1648UT is also
considered to be from a farside source and is not Earth-directed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 02-May was mostly stable, ranging
from 465 to 515 km/s, and is currently near 485 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar
wind speed may increase over 03-05 May due to the anticipated
arrival of a CME first observed on 30-Apr. A southern hemisphere
coronal hole currently crossing the central meridian may influence
the solar wind speed late on 05-May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: G0
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 6 22231021
Cocos Island 4 22221010
Darwin 5 22221012
Townsville 8 33231022
Learmonth 6 22231120
Alice Springs 6 23130021
Gingin 5 22230120
Canberra 4 22130020
Hobart 5 22131020
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 10 32250010
Casey 11 34331221
Mawson 25 45532244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 16 G0-G1
04 May 10 G0
05 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 observed
at Mawson and Macquarie Island. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 03-May due to a glancing impact from a CME first
observed on 30-Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
04-05 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 02-May. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 03-05 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day and night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 84
Jun 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 May 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 May 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on
1 May and is current for 1-3 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 02-May in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced in northern Australian regions.
Spread F was observed at Hobart and Perth during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 03-05 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list