[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 01 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 2 09:31:11 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  R2

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0121UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M7.1    1309UT  probable   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   148/102            146/100            142/96

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-May was at the R2 level, 
due to a M7.1 flare from AR3288 (S22W56, beta-gamma-delta) at 
01/1309UT. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions 
visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3289 (N20W00, 
beta-gamma-delta) has exhibited spot development over the UT 
day, particularly in its leader spots. AR3293 (N12E63, beta-gamma-delta) 
recently rotated over the eastern limb and has shown spot growth. 
AR3291 (N08W52, beta) has shown minor growth in its trailing 
spot. An unnumbered region recently rotated over the eastern 
limb and is visible at S10E89. All other sunspot regions are 
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at 
R1-R2 levels over 02-04 May. Several CMEs were observed, but 
none are considered geoeffective. A low velocity west-directed 
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 
01/0800UT. The associated eruption is visible in GOES SUVI imagery 
over the western limb from 01/0737UT. This CME is considered 
to be a farside event and not geoeffective. No significant CME 
was observed in association with the M7.1 flare. A CME observed 
on 30/2053UT now has an updated arrival time of 03/1400UT +/- 
12 hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-May was mostly stable, 
ranging from 465 to 555 km/s, and is currently near 535 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -5 
nT. The solar wind speed may increase over 02-04 May due to the 
anticipated arrival of multiple recent CMEs.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: G0

Estimated Indices 01 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11212122
      Cocos Island         4   12211121
      Darwin               5   21211122
      Townsville           5   11222122
      Learmonth            6   21222222
      Alice Springs        5   12211122
      Gingin               7   21212232
      Canberra             5   11212122
      Hobart               6   11312122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
      Macquarie Island     6   11322122
      Casey               12   34422122
      Mawson              26   44342355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3331 2312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May    16    G0-G1
03 May    16    G0-G1
04 May    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 01-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 observed 
at Mawson. G0-G1 conditions are expected on 02-May due to the 
chance of two glancing impacts in the second half of the UT day 
from CMEs first observed on 29-Apr. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected on 03-May due to a glancing impact from a CME first 
observed on 30-Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 
04-May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed 
on 01-May. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 02-04 May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 May    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      120
May      84
Jun      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May    95    Near predicted monthly values
03 May    95    Near predicted monthly values
04 May    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 
1 May and is current for 1-3 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 01-May in the Australian region were near predicted 
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local 
night hours. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane and Townsville 
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values over 02-04 May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 506 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    79100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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