[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 01 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 2 09:31:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0121UT possible lower West Pacific
M7.1 1309UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 146/100 142/96
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-May was at the R2 level,
due to a M7.1 flare from AR3288 (S22W56, beta-gamma-delta) at
01/1309UT. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3289 (N20W00,
beta-gamma-delta) has exhibited spot development over the UT
day, particularly in its leader spots. AR3293 (N12E63, beta-gamma-delta)
recently rotated over the eastern limb and has shown spot growth.
AR3291 (N08W52, beta) has shown minor growth in its trailing
spot. An unnumbered region recently rotated over the eastern
limb and is visible at S10E89. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R1-R2 levels over 02-04 May. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. A low velocity west-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
01/0800UT. The associated eruption is visible in GOES SUVI imagery
over the western limb from 01/0737UT. This CME is considered
to be a farside event and not geoeffective. No significant CME
was observed in association with the M7.1 flare. A CME observed
on 30/2053UT now has an updated arrival time of 03/1400UT +/-
12 hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-May was mostly stable,
ranging from 465 to 555 km/s, and is currently near 535 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed may increase over 02-04 May due to the
anticipated arrival of multiple recent CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: G0
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 5 11212122
Cocos Island 4 12211121
Darwin 5 21211122
Townsville 5 11222122
Learmonth 6 21222222
Alice Springs 5 12211122
Gingin 7 21212232
Canberra 5 11212122
Hobart 6 11312122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
Macquarie Island 6 11322122
Casey 12 34422122
Mawson 26 44342355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3331 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 16 G0-G1
03 May 16 G0-G1
04 May 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 observed
at Mawson. G0-G1 conditions are expected on 02-May due to the
chance of two glancing impacts in the second half of the UT day
from CMEs first observed on 29-Apr. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 03-May due to a glancing impact from a CME first
observed on 30-Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
04-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 01-May. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 02-04 May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 84
Jun 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on
1 May and is current for 1-3 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 01-May in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane and Townsville
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 02-04 May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 79100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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