[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 16 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 17 09:30:12 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.6 1643UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-May was at the R2 level,
due to a M9.6 flare observed at 16/1643UT and originating from
just beyond the southeastern limb (near S25E90). There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3305 (N08W13,
beta), AR3306 (S18W62, alpha) and new region AR3308 (N11W00,
beta) have shown signs of growth, while all other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R1 level over 17-19 May, with a chance of R2. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. Several
CMEs were observed emanating from the west, but with no obvious
on-disk source. The most significant westward CME is visible
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 16/1736UT, and appears as
a partial halo in STEREO-A imagery. Preliminary modelling and
analysis indicates that this is a farside event. Further analysis
will be conducted to determine if there is an Earth-directed
component, but it is currently not considered to be geoeffective.
A slight enhancement in the 10 MeV proton flux is currently underway
as a result of the M9.6 flare, although this is not expected
to breach the S1 threshold. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-May
was mostly stable, ranging from 440 to 500 km/s, and is currently
near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline to background
levels over 17-19 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: G0
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Cocos Island 2 12210010
Darwin 4 12211111
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 4 22211111
Alice Springs 4 12211111
Gingin 4 222100--
Canberra 3 22201001
Hobart 3 12301001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 3 11301000
Casey 9 33312122
Mawson 14 44322133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1100 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 7 G0
18 May 5 G0
19 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 16-May. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 17-19 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 16-May. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over
17-19 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-May were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Spread-F
was observed at Canberra and Hobart during local night hours.
Sporadic E was observed at Townsville and Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 17-19 May. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 193000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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