[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 30 10:30:57 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/-- 0233UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Mar reached R3 levels, with
an isolated X1.2 solar flare from AR3256 (S23W73, beta-gamma)
at 0234UT. At 1408UT this same region produced an M1 solar flare.
Currently there are 7 numbered sunspots regions on the solar
disk, all of which are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 30-Mar to 01-Apr, with
a slight chance for isolated R2 flares predominantly from AR3256.
A CME was observed from the west solar limb from 29/0234UT which
originated near the source of the X1 solar flare. This CME is
not expected to be geoeffective. A prominence eruption was observed
in H-alpha imagery from 29/1144UT and a slow CME was observed
from the southeast quadrant from 29/1236UT, but is not expected
to be geoeffective. The solar wind on UT day 29-Mar was noisy
and ranged from 427 to 350 km/s, and is currently near 400 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to begin to increase towards
the end of 30-Mar due to a small equatorial coronal hole wind
stream and remain elevated over 31-Mar and 01-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 21011112
Cocos Island 2 22100011
Darwin 3 11011112
Townsville 4 21011122
Learmonth 5 22101222
Alice Springs 2 10001112
Gingin 4 21002222
Canberra 3 20012112
Hobart 3 10012112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 00013110
Casey 12 33423212
Mawson 11 43112233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 14 G0, chance isolated G1
31 Mar 18 G0-G1
01 Apr 16 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 28 March
and is current for 31 Mar to 1 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day
29-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 30-Mar,
with a chance of isolated periods of G1 at the end of the UT
day due to a small equatorial coronal hole wind stream. G0-G1
conditions are expected over 31-Mar to 01-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 29-Mar.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 30-Mar, with mild
degradations possible over 31-Mar to 01-Apr due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity from a small coronal hole wind stream in
middle to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on
29 March and is current for 29-30 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 29-Mar in the Australian region were enhanced
by up 25-40%. Strong enhancements were observed at Cocos Islands.
Scintillation was observed at Weipa from 29/1037-1052UT. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
over 30-31 Mar, then trending to near predicted values on 01-Apr
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from a small coronal
hole wind stream. Mildly degraded conditions may be observed
over 31-Mar and 01-Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 66100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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