[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 29 10:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Mar was at the R0 level,
with low level C-class flaring from AR356(S25W59, beta) and AR3265(N21W29,
beta). There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. None of these regions are particularly significant.
No significant changes were observed in the solar regions. Region
AR3265 is currently showing some growth. Minor growth was observed
in the trailer spots of region AR3256(S14W40, beta). Decay was
observed in AR3263(N18W51, beta) and minor region AR3259(S14W40)
has decayed. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level
over 29-31 Mar. No new Earth directed CMEs have been observed
up to 28/12UT. A CME was observed near the north west limb close
to solar region AR3258(N23W83, beta) from 27/1948UT in LASCO
C2 imagery and earlier solar prominence activity was observed
on the north west limb from 27/1700UT in GOES SUVI304 imagery.
Subsequent event modelling shows a clear Earth miss. An active
solar filament may have partially erupted from the disk in GONG
H-alpha imagery during the interval 28/1400-1500UT with centre
located at N25W35. Another solar filament eruption has been reported
at S20W60 near solar region AR3256 at 28/1340UT. LASCO C2 imagery
will be checked as it becomes available for confirmation of any
associated CMEs with these two events. The solar wind speed on
UT day 28-Mar was steady but noisy, ranging from 329 to 449km/s,
and is currently near 380km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -5nT. An equatorial coronal hole is approaching
the solar central meridian and solar wind may increase on 31-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11112112
Cocos Island 1 10101100
Darwin 3 21111102
Townsville 5 21112212
Learmonth 4 12102212
Alice Springs 4 21012112
Gingin 4 11102212
Canberra 3 10013101
Hobart 3 10013111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 00004210
Casey 13 33323233
Mawson 16 43212344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1010 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 8 G0
30 Mar 14 G0, chance of G1 period late in UT day.
31 Mar 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 28 March
and is current for 31 Mar to 1 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian and Antarctic region on UT day
28-Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 29-30 Mar.
An equatorial solar coronal hole wind stream is expected to induce
mild geomagnetic activity 31-Mar to 01-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 28-Mar.
Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 29-30 Mar,
mildly degraded HF conditions expected 31-Mar for middle to high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar 146
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35-50%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35-50%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30-35%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Mar in
the Australian region were enhanced by 20-50%. Strong enhancements
were observed at Cocos Island. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced, with mildly degraded HF conditions
possible local night hours 31-Mar for the southern Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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