[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 27 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 28 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Mar was at the R0 level,
with low level C-class flaring only. There are currently nine
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3256(S25W50,
gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on disk, however
the smaller spots nearby the larger leader spot appear to have
now decayed. AR3263(N17W36, beta) shows reconfiguration in its
trailer spots and recent minor redevelopment is visible in AR3263(N17W36,
beta), AR3265(N21W17, beta) and AR3259(S14W28, beta). All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Regions AR3256
and AR3258 contributed to the low level C class flare activity.
The largest C flare observed was a C4.6 from AR3256 at 27/0636UT.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 28-30 Mar.
A minor narrow south west directed CME was observed in LASCO
C2 at 27/0812UT but could not be confidently correlated to any
on disk activity. It is possible that this CME may be related
to a C2.5 flare from AR3256 at 27/0737UT. Assuming this pairing,
event modelling shows an Earth miss from this minor event. The
solar wind speed on UT day 27-Mar decreased, ranging from 360
to 640 km/s, and is currently near 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +3 to -4 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue
to decline to nominal background levels. An equatorial coronal
hole is approaching the solar central meridian and solar wind
may increase on 31-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11000002
Townsville 2 21100012
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Gingin 0 10000001
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 8 33321012
Mawson 7 32110024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 8 G0
29 Mar 8 G0
30 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 27-Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 28-30 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 27-Mar.
Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 28-30 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40-105%
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30-40%
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Mar 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Mar in
the Australian region were enhanced by 20-45%. Strong enhancements
were observed at Cocos Island. Mild spread F was observed at
Hobart at times overnight. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced over 28-30 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 578 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 516000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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