[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 27 10:30:56 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Mar was at the R0 level,
with low level C-class flaring only. There are currently nine
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3256 (S23W35,
gamma) is the most magnetically complex region and is stable.
AR3263 (N17W24, beta) has exhibited spot development over the
24-hour period. AR3265 (N21W05, beta) has shown some minor growth
over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. The background level of X-ray flux remains at high
B-class levels. Despite the large number of sunspot regions,
most are magnetically simple and unremarkable. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 27-29 Mar. Several CMEs
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 26-Mar increased, ranging from 550 to 680
km/s, and is currently near 575 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 27-29 Mar due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects from a broad southern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 23210122
Cocos Island 3 22100112
Darwin 5 23210022
Townsville 6 23210122
Learmonth 6 32210032
Alice Springs 5 23210022
Gingin 7 32200033
Canberra 4 22200122
Hobart 5 23200122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 12101022
Casey 15 34422233
Mawson 23 54411254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 2233 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 14 G0, chance G1
28 Mar 8 G0
29 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with two isolated periods of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 27-Mar, with a chance of G1 due to ongoing coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects from a broad southern hemisphere coronal
hole. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 28-29 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 26-Mar.
An extended period of mildly degraded HF conditions for middle
to high latitudes is possible due to a broad solar coronal hole
wind stream on 27-Mar. Middle to low latitude HF conditions are
expected to remain normal. Normal HF propagation conditions are
expected over 28-29 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 110% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40-45% during local night and after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Mar 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Mar 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Mar in
the Australian region were enhanced by 30-45% in Northern Australia
and 20% enhanced in Southern Australia during local day. Sporadic
E was observed at Brisbane. Degraded HF conditions during local
night hours are possible for southern Australia over 27-Mar due
to a mild increase in geomagnetic activity from a broad solar
coronal hole. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 20% enhanced over 27-29 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 515 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 247000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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