[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 March 23 issued 2331 UT on 25 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 26 10:31:22 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3258 (N20W46, beta) and AR3263 (N17W11, beta) have
both shown growth in their trailer spots over the 24-hour period.
An unnumbered region recently appeared at ~N20E12 and is stable.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. The
background X-ray flux is at high B-class levels. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance of R1. A northwest
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
24/2212UT. Modelling indicates this CME is not geoeffective.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 25-Mar increased, ranging from 460 to 550 km/s,
and is currently near 550 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 26-28 Mar due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects from a broad southern hemisphere coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 22233222
Cocos Island 7 22231221
Darwin 7 22223122
Townsville 10 22333222
Learmonth 10 32233222
Alice Springs 9 22233222
Gingin 10 32223232
Canberra 9 22333122
Hobart 10 22333222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 22 23455332
Casey 22 45443233
Mawson 30 43453355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 72 6874 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 18 G0-G1
27 Mar 16 G0, chance G1
28 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Mar. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 26-Mar due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from a broad southern hemisphere coronal hole. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 27-Mar, with a chance of G1. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 28-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 25-Mar.
An extended period of mildly degraded HF conditions for middle
to high latitudes is possible due to a broad solar coronal hole
wind stream over 26-27 Mar. Middle to low latitude HF conditions
are expected to remain normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day and after local dawn.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
27 Mar 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Mar 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 25-Mar in
the Australian region were enhanced by 25-35% in Northern Australia
and 35% enhanced in Southern Australia during local day. Spread
F was observed at Hobart. Degraded HF conditions during local
night hours are possible for southern Australia over 26-27 Mar
due to a mild increase in geomagnetic activity from a broad solar
coronal hole. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 20% enhanced over 26-28 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 93000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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