[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 25 10:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3256 (S22W17,
gamma) is the largest and most magnetically complex region on
the solar disk. AR3259 (S21W03, beta) has exhibited spot development
over the 24-hour period. AR3258 (N20W33, beta), AR3260 (N26E09,
alpha) and AR3263 (N17E02, alpha) have all shown growth over
the UT day. Newly numbered AR3264 (N16E71, alpha) recently rotated
over the eastern limb and appears stable. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 25-27 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed in the available coronagraph imagery. A filament
eruption was observed, visible in GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery
from 24/1946UT at ~S28W03. This event is to be monitored for
any potential associated CME. The solar wind speed on UT day
24-Mar was mostly stable ranging from 395 to 480 km/s, and is
currently near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 20 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -16 nT. A sustained period of southward
IMF conditions was observed from the start of the UT day until
24/0734UT. Several other short periods of southward IMF conditions
were observed throughout the UT day. The solar wind speed is
expected to increase over 25-27 Mar due to a broad southern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: G2
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 25 54542342
Cocos Island 16 44332332
Darwin 17 43432342
Townsville 23 44542342
Learmonth 29 55533442
Alice Springs 24 53542342
Gingin 28 64433442
Canberra 25 44642332
Hobart 33 55643432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
Macquarie Island 62 45855543
Casey 16 44422233
Mawson 58 75644365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 62
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 48 1145 7546
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 25 G0-G1
26 Mar 18 G0-G1
27 Mar 16 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Mar. Mostly G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Mawson and an isolated period of G4 observed
at Macquarie Island. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 25-26 Mar due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from a broad southern hemisphere coronal hole. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 27-Mar, with a chance of G1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
26 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 24-Mar were degraded during
the first half of the UT day due to unexpectedly strong geomagnetic
activity. An extended period of mildly degraded HF conditions
for middle to high latitudes is expected due to a broad solar
coronal hole wind stream during 25-27 Mar. Middle to low latitude
HF conditions are expected to remain normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 60% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Mar 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Mar 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 24-Mar in
the Australian region were generally enhanced by 15-40% in Northern
Australia and 40% depressed in Southern Australia during local
day. Strong spread F was observed at Hobart. Degraded HF conditions
during local night hours for southern region Australia are possible
over 25-27 Mar due to an expected extended interval of mildly
increased geomagnetic activity from a broad solar coronal hole.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 25-27 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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