[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 March 23 issued 2331 UT on 30 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 31 10:31:27 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 29/2347UT possible lower West Pacific
M5.4 0737UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Mar reached the R2 level,
with an M5.4 flare produced by AR3256 (S19W75, beta) at 30/0737UT.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspots regions on the solar
disk, all of which are either stable or in decay. AR3256 is the
most significant region, due to its history of flaring. This
region is in decay and has mostly rotated off the solar disk.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels, with a chance
of R2 over 31-Mar whilst flaring from AR3256 is still visible.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 1-2 Apr,
with a chance of R1. Multiple CMEs were observed but none are
considered to be geoeffective. A pair of west directed CMEs are
visible in LASCO C2 imagery from 30/0700UT and 30/0800UT respectively.
The first CME is associated with coronal activity behind the
limb, visible in GOES SUVI imagery from 30/0631UT at around S25.
The second CME is associated with a visible eruption at around
S23W80 from 30/0739UT visible in SDO imagery and associated with
the M5.4 flare at 30/0737UT. Modelling indicates this CME has
no geoeffective component. The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Mar
increased ranging from 437 to 582 km/s, and is currently near
540 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 31-Mar and 01-Apr due to ongoing coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects. A decline is expected on 2-Apr, as high
speed wind stream effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: G1
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 16 32253242
Cocos Island 8 22232231
Darwin 15 33243242
Townsville 17 33253242
Learmonth 20 33254342
Alice Springs 16 32253242
Gingin 19 32254342
Canberra 12 32243232
Hobart 16 22354232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 31 22465542
Casey 18 33433343
Mawson 35 55433464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Hobart 62 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2101 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 16 G0, chance of G1
01 Apr 14 G0, chance of G1
02 Apr 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 28 March
and is current for 31 Mar to 1 Apr. G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region for one period on UT day
30-Mar. G1 geomagnetic conditions, with a period of G2 were observed
at Macquarie Island and Mawson on UT day 30-Mar. G0 conditions
were observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 31-Mar to 1-Apr, with a chance of G1 due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects. G0 conditions are expected
on 2-Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 30-Mar.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 31-Mar to 2-Apr,
with mild degradations possible on 31-Mar, particularly at higher
latitudes, due to recent coronal hole high speed wind stream
induced geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Mar in
the Australian region were enhanced by 25-40%. Strong enhancements
were observed at Cocos Islands and Niue. Mild depressions are
possible on 31-Mar in the Southern Australian region due to recent
coronal hole high speed wind stream induced geomagnetic activity.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced in the Northern Australian region on 31-Mar. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 1-2 Apr. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 65100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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