[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 March 23 issued 2331 UT on 21 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 22 10:31:02 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3259 (S21E36, beta) shown some minor
growth and decay over the 24 hour period. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 22-24 Mar. A filament was observed lifting
off the solar disk near N30E40 around 21/0430UT. A CME was observed
from the northeast quadrant in LASCO imagery from 21/0512UT and
models indicate it is not geoeffective. A small filament eruption
was observed from 21/1023UT near N20E15 and a faint halo CME
can be observed in LASCO C2 difference imagery from 22/1100UT,
although no significant impact to Earth is expected. A prominence
eruption was observed from 21/1148UT on the western limb and
a CME was observed from 21/1224UT from the western limb but is
not expected to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day
21-Mar was on an increasing trend. The solar wind speed ranged
from 388 to 528 km/s, and is currently near 500 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +11 to -7 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain near current speeds on 22-Mar,
and possibly increase over 23-24 Mar due to the combination of
a possible impact from a CME first observed 20-Mar and a large
southern coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11121212
Cocos Island 3 21210110
Darwin 5 11221212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 5 21221212
Alice Springs 5 11121213
Gingin 4 20120212
Canberra 4 01121212
Hobart 4 11121212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 11131211
Casey 13 34431222
Mawson 11 43222213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2002 4412
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 8 G0
23 Mar 18 G0-G1, slight chance of G2
24 Mar 8 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic activity was observed in the Australian
region and the Antarctic region on UT day 21-Mar. G0 geomagnetic
activity is expected on 22-Mar. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are mostly expected on 23-Mar with a slight chance of an isolated
period of G2 due to the combination of a large southern coronal
hole wind stream and possible weak glancing blow from a recent
CME. These enhanced geomagnetic conditions may continue over
24-Mar
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
24 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 21-Mar were normal. Normal
HF propagation conditions are expected on 22-Mar. Some mild degradations
may be expected over 23-24 Mar due to possible anticipated geomagnetic
activity, particularly in high latitude regions during local
night. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 140 20 to 30% above predicted monthly values
23 Mar 115 20% enhanced to near predicated monthly values
24 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on
20 March and is current for 20-22 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 21-Mar in the Australian region were enhanced
by 20-35%. MUFs are expected to be enhanced by 20-30% on 22-Mar,
and tending towards monthly predicted values over 23-24 Mar due
to possible anticipated geomagnetic activity. Isolated minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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