[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 20 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 21 10:30:55 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0148UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Mar was at R1 levels, with
one R1 solar flare. AR3256 (S22E38, beta) produced a long duration
M1 solar flare from 20/0145UT. There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3258 (N20E22, alpha) has
shown some minor growth and AR3256 has shown some minor instability
in its trailer spots. New region AR3255 located near S22W50 has
also shown minor growth, but has not yet been given a magnetic
classification. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. A C4 solar flare was observed at 20/1528UT near AR3258
and a CME was observed from LASCO imagery from 20/1442UT from
the northeast quadrant. Modelling indicates a weak glancing blow
on 23-Mar, but confidence is low due to lack of images. At 20/1414UT
a CME was observed from the southwest quadrant in LASCO imagery
but is considered a farside event and not geoeffective. No other
CMEs were observed. The 10MeV proton flux has remained enhanced
(around 1.23 pfu) over the 24 hour period but has stayed far
below the S1 threshold. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 21-23 Mar. On 20-Mar the solar wind speed was generally
steady and ranged from 408 to 485 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -7 nT. Bz was oriented southward from 20/1325-1445UT.
There is a large coronal hole wind stream in the southern hemisphere
which is expected to become geoeffective by 23-Mar. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain steady over 21-22 Mar, but may
become enhanced on 23-Mar due to the combination of a weak glancing
blow from the CME observed at 20/1442UT and the large southern
coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 21123412
Cocos Island 5 11113310
Darwin 8 21123411
Townsville 10 21133422
Learmonth 9 21123422
Alice Springs 9 21123412
Gingin 10 21133412
Canberra 8 21033312
Hobart 10 21133412
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 19 10055511
Casey 18 35433312
Mawson 14 43224420
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3113 442-
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 8 G0
22 Mar 8 G0
23 Mar 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic activity was observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Mar. G0-G1 geomagnetic activity was observed
in the Antarctic region on UT day 20-Mar. G0 geomagnetic activity
is expected over 21-22 Mar. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 23-Mar due to the combination of a weak glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 20-Mar and a large southern
coronal hole wind stream becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 20-Mar were normal. Normal
HF propagation conditions are expected over 21-22 Mar. Some mild
degradations may be expected on 23-Mar due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity, particularly in high latitude regions during local
night. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 65% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 140 20 to 40% above predicted monthly values
22 Mar 140 20 to 40% above predicted monthly values
23 Mar 115 20% enhanced to near predicated monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on
20 March and is current for 20-22 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 20-Mar in the Australian region were enhanced
by 20-65%. Scintillation was observed at Darwin and Weipa between
20/1058-1440UT. MUFs are expected to be enhanced by 20-40% over
21-22 Mar, and tending towards monthly predicted values by 23-Mar
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7e+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.6e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.4e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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