[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 20 10:30:54 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 143/97 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Mar was at the R0 level.
Solar regions AR3256(S22E63, beta) and AR3257(S27E70, beta) both
produced minor C class flares. AR3256 showed very minor spot
development, other regions were mostly stable. A new region AR3260(N25E77,
alpha) has rotated onto the disk but is not very magnetically
complex. There are currently 6 numbered solar regions on the
disk. No new Earth directed CMEs were observed. A non Earth directed
southward CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 19/1058UT in association
with south polar limb/behind the limb activity. GOES 10MeV solar
proton flux gradually became very slightly enhanced during the
UT day and is currently at around 1.2PFU, far below the S1 threshold.
Solar activity is expected to be R0, with the chance of an isolated
low level R1 flare. The solar wind speed on UT day 19-Mar was
steady, though noisy and ranged from 410 to 460 km/s, and is
currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The anticipated arrival of a glancing
blow from a filament eruption/CME on 17-Mar did not eventuate,
with the ACE EPAM precursor data remaining flat over the past
24 hours, and it is likely the CME has passed under the Earth.
A large coronal hole is visible in the south east solar quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22211222
Cocos Island 4 12211121
Darwin 6 22212222
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 6 22212221
Alice Springs 6 22211222
Gingin 6 22201231
Canberra 4 12201221
Hobart 5 12201222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 12211211
Casey 11 33322232
Mawson 24 24422364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 2213 3331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 10 G0
21 Mar 8 G0
22 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 18 March
and is current for 19-20 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region UT day 19-Mar. G0 conditions
generally observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G2 observed at Mawson. The anticipated increase in
geomagnetic activity due to a recent solar filament eruption/CME
has failed to eventuate and it is likely that the CME has passed
under the Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 19-Mar were normal. The
expected increase in geomagnetic activity due to a recent solar
filament eruption/CME did not eventuate and HF conditions are
now expected to remain normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 146
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35-80%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-35%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-45%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25-40%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 130 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
21 Mar 130 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
22 Mar 130 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 30 was issued
on 18 March and is current for 20 Mar only. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19-Mar in the Australian region were enhanced
by 20-80%. MUFs are expected to be enhanced by 15-30%. Degraded
HF communication conditions are now not expected as the anticipated
increase in geomagnetic activity has failed to eventuate. Isolated
minor fadeouts possible. Ionospheric scintillation was observed
at Weipa during the interval 19/1256-1320UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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