[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 March 23 issued 2331 UT on 22 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 23 10:31:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring. Minor isolated low level C class
flaring was observed from several sunspot regions. Solar regions
have been generally stable with no significant solar region development
observed. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the
solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 23-25 Mar. The 10MeV solar proton flux has been very mildly
elevated over the past three days, peaking at approximately 1.7PFU
late on 19-Mar, now with an overall declining trend to near background
levels. The cause of this mild increase in the solar proton flux
is unclear. No new significantly Earth directed CMEs have been
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Mar was steady, with
a slight declining trend toward the end of the UT day. The solar
wind speed ranged from 488 to 550 km/s, and is currently near
528 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+8 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 23-24 Mar due to the combination of a possible impact from
a CME first observed 20-Mar and a equatorial coronal hole wind
stream, then to slightly decline. An extended period of elevated
solar wind conditions is then likely from a coronal hole in the
southern solar hemisphere, whilst this coronal hole is broad
in longitudinal extent it is located quite far south which may
reduce induced geomagnetic activity. The coronal hole has a narrow
trans equatorial extension on its eastern side, though at this
stage this feature is still in the eastern solar hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 32332321
Cocos Island 6 32221220
Darwin 8 32222321
Townsville 13 43332321
Learmonth 11 32332331
Alice Springs 9 32322321
Gingin 11 32332331
Canberra 8 32232221
Hobart 11 33333221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 19 23454330
Casey 18 54332331
Mawson 27 55442351
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3112 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 18 G0, chance G1
24 Mar 18 G0, chance G1
25 Mar 18 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 22 March
and is current for 23-24 Mar. G0 geomagnetic activity was observed
in the Australian region on UT day 22-Mar. G0-G1 conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. G0 conditions with the chance
of G1 periods are expected on 23-24 Mar. In general an extended
interval of mildly enhanced geomagnetic activity is expected
in coming days due to a broad coronal hole located in the southern
solar hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
24 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
25 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 22-Mar were normal for
middle to low latitudes and normal to fair for middle to high
latitudes. Mildly increased absorption was observed at times
at high latitudes due to recently slightly elevated solar proton
flux. An extended period of mildly degraded HF conditions for
middle to high latitudes is expected due to a broad solar coronal
hole wind stream. Middle to low latitude HF conditions are expected
to remain normal. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-45%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25-60%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Mildly elevated absorption observed at times.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 125 20% enhanced to near predicated monthly values
24 Mar 125 20% enhanced to near predicated monthly values
25 Mar 125 20% enhanced to near predicated monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-Mar in
the Australian region were enhanced by 20-60%. Mild spread F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be enhanced by 20-30% over the next three days. Degraded HF
conditions during local night hours for southern region Australia
are possible in coming days due to an expected extended interval
of mildly increased geomagnetic activity from a broad solar coronal
hole. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list