[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 March 23 issued 2331 UT on 15 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 16 10:31:20 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 138/92 145/99 142/96
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Mar was at R0 levels. There
are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3254
(S25W38, beta) has shown some mild unstable growth. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay, and most regions
have a simple alpha magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0 levels over 16-18 Mar. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Mar was variable,
and ranged between 402 and 584 km/s. A shock in the solar wind
was observed at 15/0348UT due to a glancing impact from a CME
first observed on 11-Mar. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) reached 25 nT due to the CME shock. The north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +16 to -17 nT. Bz was southward
between 14/2200 - 15/0200UT, and again from 15/1945 - 2130UT.
The solar wind speed is currently near 530 km/s, and is expected
to remain elevated due to a second anticipated CME impact on
16-Mar. The 10MeV proton flux, which has been fluctuating about
the S1 radiation storm threshold since 13/0740UT, began to return
to background levels with the S1 event ending at 15/0540UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: G1
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 18 25432224
Cocos Island 12 24421123
Darwin 19 35432224
Townsville 22 35432235
Learmonth 19 35432224
Alice Springs 21 35432225
Gingin 17 15432124
Canberra 17 24431125
Hobart 19 24442125
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
Macquarie Island 26 34463324
Casey 38 47642223
Mawson 40 47543235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 50 (Unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 2333 3324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 30 G0-G2, chance G2
17 Mar 12 G0
18 Mar 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 13 March
and is current for 15-16 Mar. A period of G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in most Australian sites on 15-Mar. G0 to G3 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with a single
period of G3 being observed at Casey and Mawson. Generally G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 16-18 Mar, with possible
G1-G2 conditions on 16-Mar due to a glancing impact from a CME
first observed on 13-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1145UT 14/03, Ended at 1220UT 14/03
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1355UT 14/03, Ended at 1435UT 14/03
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1555UT 14/03, Ended at 1630UT 14/03
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1740UT 14/03, Ended at 0515UT 15/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 15-Mar were degraded at
high latitude regions due to increased absorption from a weak
solar proton event, and brief G1 geomagnetic activity. Mild degradations
are possible on 16-Mar as further geomagnetic activity is expected
from a weak glancing impact from a CME first observed 13-Mar.
Mostly normal conditions are expected over 17-18 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 90% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
17 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 29 was issued
on 15 March and is current for 16 Mar only. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 15-Mar in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values during the local day and up tp 25% enhanced during
local night. Spread-F was observed at Perth and Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 16-18 Mar, with depressions of 20% possible on 16-17
Mar due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from a CME first
observed on 13-Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 14.5 p/cc Temp: 170000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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