[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 15 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity R0 R0 R0-R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 142/96 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flare activity. Solar regions AR3250(S18W18,
beta) and AR3254(S25W23, beta-gamma) produced isolated low levels
C class flares. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk and one new region. None of these regions are
particularly significant. A previously flare active solar region
AR3234, is due back to the north east solar limb at latitude
N25 on 18-Mar. No significant Earth directed CMEs were observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Mar ranged between 308-445
km/s with an increasing trend possibly due to a weak grazing
CME transit, and is currently near 400 km/s though now slightly
declining. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+14 to -11 nT. A further enhancement in solar wind parameters
is expected from mid 15-Mar due to a glancing blow from the filament/CME
on 13-Mar. The US GOES satellite solar 10MeV energy proton flux
again edged over the 10PFU threshold during the later half of
the UT day and is currently 17PFU, mildly above the ASWAS S1
threshold of 10PFU.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 14 34333322
Cocos Island 12 33322332
Darwin 13 34333222
Townsville 15 34334222
Learmonth 15 33334332
Alice Springs 13 24333322
Gingin 13 33332---
Canberra 11 23333222
Hobart 13 24333322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
Macquarie Island 21 33345432
Casey 30 45643333
Mawson 26 45433444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 16 G0, chance G1
16 Mar 30 G0-G1, chance G2
17 Mar 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 13 March
and is current for 15-16 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 14-Mar, with a mild
increase in geomagnetic activity due to a very weak glancing
CME impact. Generally G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 observed
at Casey. G0-G1 conditions are likely on 15-Mar due to further
glancing impacts from recent CME activity associated with solar
filament eruptions. Further mildly disturbed conditions are expected
for 16-Mar, due to another CME glancing blow associated with
a solar filament eruption on 13-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : Increased absorption due to weak S1 events. The GOES
10MeV solar proton flux is repeatedly oscillating over the S1 threshold,
with the latest event beginning at 14/1740UT and is currently in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
16 Mar Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 14-Mar were degraded at
high latitudes due to increased absorption from a weak solar
proton event. Normal conditions were observed at other latitudes.
Mildly degraded HF conditions for middle to high latitudes are
possible over 15-16 Mar due to a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity from recent CME activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 163
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-65%
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30-55%
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35-40%
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed at Mawson.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 110 Depressed to 10-15% to 20% enhanced.
16 Mar 90 Depressed 15% to 20% enhanced.
17 Mar 120 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Mar were
25-65% enhanced in the Australian region. MUFs are expected to
be 15-20% enhanced on 15-Mar for the northern region Australia.
Southern region Australian may experience MUF depressions of
10-15% early on 15-Mar, with further depressions possible on
16-Mar if further mild geomagnetic activity eventuates over 15-16
Mar. Ionospheric scintillation was observed 14/1031-1440UT at
Darwin and Weipa and more briefly at Niue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 12800 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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