[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 March 23 issued 2336 UT on 13 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 14 10:36:36 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 142/96 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Mar was at R0 levels, with
no significant flare activity. A solar filament approximately
27 degrees long, located at N30E05 erupted from the solar disk
over the interval 13/0949-1030UT. An associated predominately
north west directed CME with limited expansion was subsequently
observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 13/1048UT. Though mostly directed
to the north west, event analysis and subsequent modelling indicates
that this CME is likely to result in a glancing blow to the Earth's
magnetosphere at around the middle of the UT day 15-Mar. There
are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. None
of these regions are particularly significant. The solar wind
speed on UT day 13-Mar ranged between 369-316 km/s with a slight
declining trend, and is currently near 330 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +10 to -1 nT. Bz was predominately
orientated northward for most of the UT day. An increase in solar
wind speed is expected over 14-15 Mar due to weak glancing impacts
from CMEs observed on 10, 11 and 12 Mar. A further enhancement
in solar wind parameters is now expected from mid 15-Mar due
to a glancing blow from the filament/CME on 13-Mar. A very fast
full halo far side CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery from
13/0348UT. The US GOES satellite solar 10MeV energy proton flux
edged over the 10PFU threshold during the UT day following the
far side halo CME. The filament eruption on 13-Mar may have contributed
to subsequent minor thresholds crossings later in the day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11010101
Cocos Island 2 12010100
Darwin 2 21110101
Townsville 3 11111211
Learmonth 3 12010202
Alice Springs 1 11000101
Gingin 1 11000101
Canberra 1 11000101
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 3 13210001
Mawson 2 11011110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2132 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 12 G0, chance G1
15 Mar 16 G0-G1
16 Mar 35 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 13 March
and is current for 15 Mar only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 13-Mar. G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected 14-15 Mar, with G1 conditions more likely
on 15-Mar due to glancing impacts from recent CME activity associated
with solar filament eruptions. Further disturbed conditions are
now expected for 16-Mar, again due to another solar filament
eruption on 13-Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : Increased HF absorption at times in the polar region ionosphere.
Minor ASWAS S1 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 13/1400-1500UT and
13/1615-1700UT.
Very brief threshold crossing observed earlier at 13/0740UT and 13/0845UT.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Poor-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Mar Normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 13-Mar were mostly normal.
Mildly degraded HF conditions for middle to high latitudes are
possible over 14-15 Mar due to an anticipated mild increase in
geomagnetic activity from recent CME activity. More strongly
degraded conditions are expected for 16 Mar at middle to high
latitudes due to a glancing blow from a CME associated with a
filament eruption observed on 13-Mar. High latitude HF communication
may have experienced increased mild absorption on 13-Mar at times
due to increased solar proton flux/polar cap absorption. Increased
PCA may be experienced early on 14-Mar in the polar cap region
ionosphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35-40%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 120 15 to 20% above predicted monthly values
15 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 100 About 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Mar were
20-40% enhanced in the Australian region. MUFs are expected to
be 15-20% enhanced on 14-Mar, and near monthly values over 15-16
Mar due to an anticipated mild increase in geomagnetic activity
over 14-15 Mar. Stronger geomagnetic activity is likely from
mid 15-Mar from a more recent CME, and depressed ionospheric
conditions may follow on 16-Mar for the southern Australian region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 22900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list