[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 12 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 13 10:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Mar was at R0 levels, with
no significant flaring. There are currently 9 sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3249 (S11E11, beta) and AR3250 (S18E06,
beta) have shown some growth in their trailer spots. All other
sunspot regions are either table or in decay, and have simple
magnetic classifications. Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly R0 levels over 13-15 Mar, with a chance for R1 flares.
A prominence eruption occurred on the northeast limb from around
0200UT. A CME can be observed in coronagraph images from 0400UT
from the northeast limb, but this CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
Another filament eruption was observed in H-alpha and SDO imagery
from 12/1740UT. A CME was observed from the south in coronagraph
images from 12/1912UT and modelling indicates a weak glancing
blow on late 15-Mar or early 16-Mar. The solar wind speed on
UT day 12-Mar ranged between 432-357 km/s on a steady trend,
and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -8 nT. Bz was southward between 12/0545-0900UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal levels
on 13-Mar, and then increase over 14-15 Mar due to weak glancing
impacts from CMEs observed on 10, 11 and 12 Mar. A small equatorial
coronal hole wind stream may further enhance the solar wind speed
by 15-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Cocos Island 4 22220011
Darwin 5 22221111
Townsville 6 22231112
Learmonth 6 32221112
Alice Springs 4 21221111
Gingin 6 31221211
Canberra 4 21221011
Hobart 7 22331111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 8 21342110
Casey 14 35431111
Mawson 15 53442100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 6 G0
14 Mar 12 G0, chance G1
15 Mar 16 G0 - G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 at Casey
and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 13-Mar.
G0, with a chance of isolated periods of G1 are expected over
14-15 Mar due to expected weak glancing impacts from CMEs observed
on 10, 11 and 12 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 12-Mar were mostly normal.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 13-Mar, and then
some degradations are possible over 14-15 Mar due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 95% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 65% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 140 Near predicted monthly values to 30-40% enhanced
14 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-Mar were
15-65% enhanced in the Australian region, with the strongest
enhancements observed in the northern Australian region after
local dawn. Enhancements up to 95% were observed at Niue Island
during local night. MUFs are expected to be 30-40% enhanced on
13-Mar, and near monthly values over 14-15 Mar due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 85800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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