[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 March 23 issued 2331 UT on 11 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 12 10:31:06 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Mar was at R0 levels, with
no significant flaring. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3250 (S18E18, beta) has shown some
growth but has not yet flared. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay, with most regions being a simple alpha
magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected to be at mostly
R0 levels over 12-14 Mar, with a chance of R1 flares. A slow-moving
filament eruption was observed in H-alpha imagery in the southwest
quadrant near 40S50W from approximately 11/1450UT. A CME was
then observed from the southwest in LASCO imagery from 11/1648UT
from the filament eruption. There is a chance this CME may impact
as a weak glancing blow on 15-Mar, soon after the glancing impact
from the CME from 10-Mar, but the bulk of the ejecta will likely
pass underneath Earth. No other geoeffective CMEs were observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Mar was relatively steady and
ranged between 465-375 km/s, and is currently near 400 km/s.
The solar wind speed is expected to continue this trend over
12-13 Mar, then begin to increase on 14-Mar due to the possible
weak glancing blow from the CME first observed 10-Mar. The peak
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 21101012
Cocos Island 2 21100010
Darwin 3 21111012
Townsville 3 21111012
Learmonth 3 22101011
Alice Springs 2 11101012
Gingin 2 21100021
Canberra 2 11101002
Hobart 2 11101002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 12101101
Casey 12 34412013
Mawson 18 44323125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 4120 2433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 5 G0
13 Mar 6 G0
14 Mar 12 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and Antarctic region on UT day 11-Mar. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 12-14 Mar, with possible isolated
periods of G1 on 14-Mar due to anticipated geomagnetic activity
from glancing impacts from a CME first observed 10/1800UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 11-Mar were mostly normal.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 12-14
Mar, with some mild degradations possible by the end of 14-Mar
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 140 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced
13 Mar 130 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced
14 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Mar were
20-55% enhanced over the local day and local night in the Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be near monthly values to 30% enhanced
over 12-14 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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