[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 11 10:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 172/126 170/124 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Mar was at R0 levels, with
the biggest flare being C7 from AR3245 (S24W14, beta) at 10/0710UT.
AR3242 (N11W37, beta), AR3245 and AR3247 (S23E18, beta) have
all shown decay in their trailer spots. All other sunspots are
stable and most are a simple alpha magnetic complexity. Solar
activity is expected to be predominantly R0, with a chance of
R1, over 11-13 Mar. A C2 combined with a filament eruption from
AR3240 (S11W70) was observed in H-alpha imagery from 10/1325UT.
A CME on the western limb was observed from 10/1336UT. A second
filament eruption was observed from 10/1600UT near S20W60, and
a CME was observed from the western limb from 10/1736UT. A weak
glancing impact may be observed at Earth on 14-Mar from the combination
of these CMEs. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Mar was on a
generally steady trend and ranged between 435 - 388 km/s, and
is currently near 390 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue its slight declining trend over 11013 Mar. The peak
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -7 nT. Bz
was southward 10/1415-1600UT, and again from 10/2010-2300UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21212212
Cocos Island 4 22210112
Darwin 5 21202212
Townsville 5 21212212
Learmonth 6 21212222
Alice Springs 5 21202212
Gingin 6 21212222
Canberra 5 21202212
Hobart 5 21202222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 21202432
Casey 17 43532213
Mawson 25 53311436
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 2353 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 8 G0
12 Mar 7 G0
13 Mar 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Mawson and Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 11-13 Mar. Two CMEs observed on 10-Mar may
have a glancing impact on Earth by 14-Mar however, and G1 conditions
may be observed then.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 10-Mar were mostly normal.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 11-13
Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 60% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values to 20-30% enhanced
12 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values to 20-30% enhanced
13 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-Mar were
near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced, with enhancements
up to 60% observed in the Southern Australian region after local
dawn, particularly near Canberra. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 20-30% enhanced over 11-13 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 96400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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