[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 10 10:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 178/131 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Mar was at the R0 level,
with the largest flare a C6.2 flare at 09/2024UT from AR3245(S24W02,
beta). Region AR3242(N11W21, beta) also produced minor C class
flares. These two medium sized regions which recently have been
the largest on the solar disk, are both showing decay, with AR3242
more clearly in decay in its intermediate and trailer spots,
and AR3245 showing an increased spacing and decline of the small
spots trailing its large leader spot. Two new small regions have
rotated onto the solar disk over the north east and south east
solar limb. Small solar region AR3247(S23E32, beta) is currently
showing growth. Another new small region has emerged to the east
of AR3247 in the south east solar quadrant. All other sunspot
regions are relatively stable. No solar region on the disk currently
exhibits a complex magnetic field structure. There are currently
11 numbered regions on the solar disk. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 10-12 Mar. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed on UT day 09-Mar. A CME is visible in LASCO C2 from
09/1325UT initially to the north west, and then in C3 from 09/1354UT,
expanding into an asymmetric halo, but due to a relatively quiet
Earth side solar disk this is considered a far side event. A
faint narrow southward directed CME is visible from 09/2024UT
in LASCO C2 and is not considered Earth directed. There is an
emission on the north east limb at solar latitude N22 in SDO171
imagery which indicates another region will rotate onto the disk
shortly. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Mar was steady ranging
between 402-467 km/s, and is currently near 430 km/s. Recurrence
suggests that the solar wind speed will continue to decline in
coming days. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF)
was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (IMF, Bz) range was
+7 to -8 nT. A period of mildly southward IMF conditions was
observed 09/0350-0740UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 22333222
Cocos Island 6 22222220
Darwin 10 22333222
Townsville 10 22333222
Learmonth 12 22334223
Alice Springs 10 22333222
Gingin 12 22334321
Canberra 11 22333322
Hobart 13 22433332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 23 13644421
Casey 17 34443322
Mawson 34 45543355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1211 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 10 G0
11 Mar 8 G0
12 Mar 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 observed at Macquarie Island and G1 periods were observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 10-12
Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 09-Mar were mostly normal.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 10-12
Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-65%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-45%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 115 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Mar 115 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar 115 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-Mar were
near predicted monthly values to 45% enhanced in the Australian
region, with very strong enhancements observed at Niue. Strong
ionospheric scintillation was observed at Niue 09/0712-0840UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20%
enhanced over 10-12 Mar. Isolated minor HF fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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