[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 08 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 9 10:30:51 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 1012UT possible lower European
M1.3 2245UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 182/135
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 178/131 175/129 172/126
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Mar was at the R1 level
due to an M1.2 flare from AR3242(N11W09, beta-gamma), and an M1.3
flare from AR3245(S24E15, beta). No CME appeared associated with
the longer duration M1.2 flare from AR3242. No LASCO imagery is
yet available for the M1.3 flare from AR3245. Solar region AR3242
now appears to be currently in decline, with decay evident in
intermediate and trailer spots. Some spot development and redistribution
is evident in the smaller spots around the large leader spot
in region AR3245. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. Solar regions AR3242 and AR3245 are medium
sized and are currently the two largest regions on the disk.
All other sunspot regions are relatively minor and either stable
or in decay, with many regions showing a simple alpha magnetic
complexity. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 09-11 Mar. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on UT day
08-Mar. The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Mar showed a slight
declining trend ranging between 492-416 km/s, and is currently
near 422 km/s, though the wind speed data is very noisy. Overall,
the solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline, but
may become mildly enhanced due to a weak glancing blow from a
CME expected on 09-Mar. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (IMF, Bz) range
was +5 to -5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 11221232
Cocos Island 5 22110131
Darwin 4 21111122
Townsville 7 11211233
Learmonth 7 12221232
Alice Springs 5 11111232
Gingin 7 11220242
Canberra 6 11121232
Hobart 6 11221232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 01240021
Casey 11 33331232
Mawson 37 24422276
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2333 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 10 G0
10 Mar 10 G0
11 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 09-11 Mar. A weak glancing blow from a CME may be expected
from a CME first observed 06/0912UT, but is not expected to have
significant effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 08-Mar were mostly normal.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 09-11
Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-60%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25-35%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 115 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar 115 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Mar 115 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Mar were
near predicted monthly values to 45% enhanced in the Australian
region, with very strong enhancements observed at Niue. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
over 09-11 Mar. Isolated minor HF fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 558 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 211000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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