[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 March 23 issued 2331 UT on 07 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 8 10:31:43 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 178/131
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Mar was at R0 levels, with
no significant solar flares. There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3242 (N11E01, beta-gamma-delta)
and AR3245 (S23E23, beta) have shown some growth over the past
24 hours. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay,
with many regions showing a simple alpha magnetic complexity.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 8-10 Mar,
with a chance of R2, due to the flare potential of AR3242 and
AR3245. A filament eruption was observed from 07/2011UT on the
northwest limb. A CME can be observed in STEREO-A images from
07/2123UT, however given its far west latitudinal extent it is
not expected to impact Earth. No geoeffective CMEs were observed
on UT day 7 Mar. The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Mar was on
a slight declining trend which ranged between 692 - 484 km/s,
and is currently near 490 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decline as Earth leaves the influence of an equatorial
coronal hole wind stream as it rotates over the western limb
on 08-Mar, but may become enhanced due to a weak glancing blow
from a CME expected on 09-Mar. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(IMF, Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 23322101
Cocos Island 6 23321100
Darwin 7 22331102
Townsville 8 23322112
Learmonth 10 33332112
Alice Springs 7 23322102
Gingin 8 33322111
Canberra 7 23322101
Hobart 8 23332101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 17 23454211
Casey 21 45542122
Mawson 18 34443233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 4212 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 14 G0
09 Mar 10 G0
10 Mar 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with some periods of G1 observed
at Macquarie Island and Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 08-10 Mar. A weak glancing blow from a CME may
be expected from a CME first observed 06/0912UT, but is not expected
to have significant effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 07-Mar were mostly normal,
with some degradations at high latitude regions, particularly
during local night hours. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected over 08-10 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
09 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
10 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on
6 March and is current for 7-8 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 07-Mar were near predicted monthly values to
35% enhanced in the Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed
briefly at most sites during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced over 08-10
Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 572 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 22000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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