[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 March 23 issued 0103 UT on 07 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 7 12:03:59 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
CORRECTED COPY: CME impact wording
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.8 0228UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 0912UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1750UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 188/141
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity R0-R1, chance R2-R3 R0-R1, chance R2-R3 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 195/147 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Mar was at R2 levels, with
an M5.7 solar flare at 06/0226UT from AR3243 (N18W64, beta).
There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk, however
most are a simple alpha magnetic classification. AR3242 (N11E17,
beta-gamma-delta) and AR3245 (S24E38, beta) have shown some growth
over the past 24 hours. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
flare levels over 7-9 Mar, with a chance for isolated R2-R3.
AR3243 has recently produced the R2 level solar flares, however
it is due to rotate over the limb in the coming days. A southwest
directed CME was visible in LASCO imagery from 06/0312UT, which
was associated with the M5 solar flare at 06/0226UT. A western
CME was observed from 06/0836UT. An impact may be expected on
9-Mar, however any impact is expected to be insignificant. The
solar wind speed on UT day 06-Mar was variable and ranged between
621 - 511 km/s and is currently near 530 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to begin declining over 7-9 Mar, as a large equatorial
coronal hole rotates over the western limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 33233223
Cocos Island 8 32222222
Darwin - --------
Townsville 12 33233223
Learmonth 12 33223323
Alice Springs 12 33233223
Gingin 11 32323223
Canberra 10 23232223
Hobart 14 33333323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
Macquarie Island 22 33254532
Casey 34 36652333
Mawson 53 64533666
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 62 (Active)
Canberra 60 (Unsettled)
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 19 3343 4343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 14 G0, slight chance of isolated G1
08 Mar 10 G0
09 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 6-Mar. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with several periods of G2 at Mawson
and Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
7-9 Mar, with a slight chance of an isolated period of G1 due
to possible CME glancing blows and elevated solar wind conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 05-Mar were mildly degraded
at middle to high latitudes, particularly during local night
hours. Further degradations in HF conditions at middle to high
latitudes are expected 06 Mar due to continuing mild geomagnetic
activity from an equatorial coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 5 March
and is current for 6-7 Mar. ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning
28 was issued on 6 March and is current for 7-8 Mar. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06-Mar were enhanced by 20%
in the northern Australian regions, but near predicted values
to 25% depressed in the southern Australian regions. Sporadic-E
was observed during local night hours at Brisbane and Hobart.
Scintillation was observed at Weipa from 06/1225-1226UT. A shortwave
fadeout was observed from 06/0218-0335UT due to an R2 flare. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values in the southern Australian
region over 7-9 Mar, and near predicted values to 20% enhanced
in the northern Australian region over 7-9 Mar. More enhancements
may be observed by the end of the period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 40200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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