[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 March 23 issued 2331 UT on 16 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 17 10:31:21 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 138/92
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Mar was at low R0 levels.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk,
but all are either stable or decaying. Most sunspot regions on
the solar disk are showing a simple magnetic complexity, and
mostly R0-level flares are expected over 17-19 Mar. No CMEs were
observed in the past 24 hours in the available coronagraph imagery.
The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Mar was variable, due to a
glancing blow from a CME first observed 13-Mar. The CME impacted
Earth early in the UT day and enhanced solar wind speeds briefly,
which ranged from 586 to 453 km/s, and is currently near 450
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7
to -6 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to decline to background
levels over 17-19 Mar, with the possibility of becoming elevated
again by the end of the period due to a small equatorial coronal
hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 32110000
Cocos Island 3 32200000
Darwin 3 31100001
Townsville 4 32110011
Learmonth 5 41210000
Alice Springs 3 31110001
Gingin 5 42110000
Canberra 3 32110000
Hobart 3 32110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 32032010
Casey 12 44420111
Mawson 7 33230011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 22 3534 2215
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 8 G0
18 Mar 6 G0
19 Mar 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and Antarctic region on UT day 16-Mar. While G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region at the end
of the UT day of 15-Mar (and G2 on the planetary K-index), it
was an isolated event and geomagnetic activity become quiet afterwards.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 17-19 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1740UT 14/03, Ended at 0515UT 15/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 16-Mar were mildly degraded
at low latitude regions due to sporadic-E, and also mildly degraded
at high latitude regions to due recent geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 17-19 Mar. HF propagation
conditions on 15-Mar were degraded at high latitude regions due
to increased absorption from a weak solar proton event, and brief
G1 geomagnetic activity. Mild degradations are possible on 16-Mar
as further geomagnetic activity is expected from a weak glancing
impact from a CME first observed 13-Mar. Mostly normal conditions
are expected over 17-18 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 105% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 135 Near predicted monthly values to 20-30% enhanced
18 Mar 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20-30% enhanced
19 Mar 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20-30% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Mar in
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-40% over the local
day and night. Sporadic-E was briefly observed in my northern
region sites during local night. Scintillation was observed at
Darwin from 16/1437-1459UT. MUFs are expected to be enhanced
by 20-30% over 17-19 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 500 km/sec Density: 15.0 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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