[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 March 23 issued 2331 UT on 04 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 5 10:31:04 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0710UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1342UT possible lower European
M5.2 1557UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 182/135
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 190/143 195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Mar was at the R2 level
due to an M5 flare from solar region AR3234(N24W90) which has
now rotated off disk over the solar north west limb. This slow
rise and fall flare was associated with a westward CME and subsequent
event modelling shows a clear Earth miss. No solar proton flux
enhancement was observed following this flare. Solar region AR3234
is due back to the north east solar limb on 18-Mar. No other
new Earth directed CMEs have been observed. There are currently
8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Smaller solar region
AR3243(N18W46, beta) has shown growth and produced one of the
M1 flares. Solar region AR3242(N11E45, beta) has shown development
in its intermediate spots produced the other M1 flare. This region
appeared quite active in GONG H-alpha imagery with frequent on
disk surging around its leader spot. Development in small solar
region AR3240(S11E13, beta) did not continue. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 05-07 Mar. The solar wind
speed on UT day 04-Mar was elevated and steady. Elevated and
possibly increasing solar wind speed conditions are expected
over 05-06 Mar due to an equatorial coronal hole that is now
to the west of the solar central meridian. The solar wind speed
ranged between 505 to 519km/s, and is currently steady near 514
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 7nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to
-6nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 11 32322233
Cocos Island 7 32211123
Darwin - --------
Townsville 11 32322233
Learmonth 14 43332233
Alice Springs 10 32322223
Gingin 13 33322234
Canberra 11 32322233
Hobart 13 33332233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 32343232
Casey 28 55542234
Mawson 42 65443356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 74 (Active)
Canberra 85 (Minor storm)
Hobart 108 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19 4333 3244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 18 G0-G1
06 Mar 20 G0-G1
07 Mar 14 G0, chance G1 periods
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 3 March and
is current for 5-6 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 04-Mar, with mildly elevated
geomagnetic activity levels. Periods of G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region at Casey and Mawson, with
G0 conditions observed at Macquarie Island. Periods of G1 conditions
possible on 05-06 Mar due to anticipated mild geomagnetic activity
from an equatorial coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 04-Mar were mildly degraded
at middle to high latitudes. Further degradations in HF conditions
at middle to high latitudes are expected 05-06 Mar due to anticipated
mild geomagnetic activity from an equatorial coronal hole wind
stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-35% during local day.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30-35% during local day.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-30% during local day.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on
4 March and is current for 4-6 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 04-Mar were 20-35% enhanced in the northern
Australian region, with strongly enhanced MUFs observed at Darwin
and Niue. Southern Australian region MUFs were depressed 15-20%
during the local day. Mild spread-F was observed at Perth and
Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are generally expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced for 05
Mar, with brief 15% depressions for the southern Australian region
observed after local dawn this morning. MUFs may again become
15% depressed in the southern Australian region on 06-Mar due
to anticipated mild geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole
wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 16100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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