[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 March 23 issued 2335 UT on 03 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 4 10:35:07 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 1032UT possible lower European
X2.1 1752UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Mar was at the R3 level
due to an X2 flare. Solar region AR3234(N24W71, beta) produced
both the M3.3 and the X2.1 flares. This region is now approaching
the north west solar limb. A westward CME followed the X2 flare
but due to the regions far west location is unlikely to reach
the Earth. Event modelling will be conducted as further LASCO
imagery becomes available. Two small solar filament sections
located at S40W40-45 erupted from around 03/0700UT (US GONG H-alpha
imagery). A narrow minor south west directed CME was associated
with this event. Two other small erupting filaments were reported
from 03/1604UT south east quadrant and from 03/1449UT north east
quadrant, but did not appear to be associated with significant
CMEs. No other new Earth directed CMEs have been observed. There
are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Minor
flare activity was observed from solar region AR3242(N11E58,
beta) which produced a C7.2 flare, and AR3239(N30E29, alpha)
produced a low level C3 flare. Small new solar region AR3240(S11E26,
---) showed rapid growth over the ast 24 hours. AR3245(S24E77,
beta) has rotated further onto the disk and has a moderately
large leader spot and has remained flare quiet. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 04-06 Mar, with a slight
chance of isolated low-level R2 flares on 04-Mar as AR3234 departs
the disk. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Mar exhibited an
overall increasing trend, though data was noisy. The solar wind
speed may decline slightly on 04-Mar before increasing again
due to a equatorial coronal hole is now just passing the solar
central meridian with an increase in wind speed from this hole
is expected 05-06 Mar. The solar wind speed ranged between 513
to 600km/s, and is currently steady near 598 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 14 33333233
Cocos Island 10 33222232
Darwin - --------
Townsville 14 33333233
Learmonth 18 43333343
Alice Springs 12 23233233
Gingin 14 33233243
Canberra 13 23333233
Hobart 14 23343233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie Island 35 44664333
Casey 30 46543243
Mawson 53 55544276
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 79 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 0122 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 12 G0
05 Mar 18 G0-G1
06 Mar 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03-Mar, with mildly elevated geomagnetic activity
levels. Periods of G1-G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 04-Mar, with periods of G1 conditions possible on
05-06 Mar due to anticipated mild geomagnetic activity from an
equatorial coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 03-Mar were mildly degraded
at middle to high latitudes. Further degradations in HF conditions
are expected 05-06 Mar due to anticipated mild geomagnetic activity
from an equatorial coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35-45%.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
05 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
06 Mar 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly 20-30%
enhanced in the northern Australian region, with strongly enhanced
MUFs observed at Niue. Southern Australian region MUFs were depressed
15% during the local day. Mild spread-F was observed at Perth
and Hobart during local night hours. Southern Australian region
MUFs are depressed 15% after local dawn but these current mildly
depressed conditions are not expected to persist. MUFs are generally
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced
over 04-05 Mar, and becoming 15% depressed to near predicted
monthly values in the southern Australian region on 06-Mar due
to anticipated mild geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole
wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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