[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 02 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 3 10:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: R1
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Mar was at R1 levels, with
the largest flare being M3 from AR3234 (N24W60, beta-gamma-delta)
at 02/2116UT. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3234 remains the largest and most magnetically
complex, and has shown some growth over the past 24 hours. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Returning
region AR3123, now renamed AR3241 (N28E56, beta) has shown considerable
decay since the last rotating. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 3-5 Mar, with a slight chance of isolated
low-level R2 flares. A filament eruption visible in H-alpha imagery
from 02/1611UT near S22E60 produced a slow-moving CME but has
been analysed to not have an Earth-directed component. No other
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Mar was
variable but with an overall declining trend. The solar wind
speed ranged between 564-440km/s, and is currently near 520 km/s.
This recent enhancement is most likely due to a weak glancing
blow of a CME first observed 01/1424UT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near current speeds on 3-Mar, then begin
to increase over 4-5 Mar due to an equatorial coronal hole wind
stream. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 11nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6
to -7nT. Bz was southward between 02/1830-2235UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 22222233
Cocos Island 7 12122232
Darwin - --------
Townsville 7 22122223
Learmonth 9 22222233
Alice Springs 8 12222233
Gingin 9 22222233
Canberra 8 22231223
Hobart 8 12231223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie Island 16 02552132
Casey 18 35432233
Mawson 13 23332243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2102 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 8 G0
04 Mar 12 G0
05 Mar 18 G0, slight chance of isolated G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in Antarctica, with two periods of G1 at Macquarie Island.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 3-5 Mar, with
a slight chance of an isolated period of G1 on 5-Mar due to anticipated
mild geomagnetic activity from an equatorial coronal hole wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
04 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 2-Mar were mostly normal.
HF conditions over 3-5 Mar was expected to be mostly normal,
with some mild degradations possible, particularly at high latitudes,
from 4-Mar due to anticipated mild geomagnetic activity from
an equatorial coronal hole wind stream. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values to 20-25% enhanced
04 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
05 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on
1 March and is current for 1-3 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly 20-30% enhanced.
Sporadic-E was observed at Brisbane during local night and spread-F
was observed in Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected
to be near 20-25% enhanced over 3-4 Mar, and near monthly predicted
values on 5-Mar due to anticipated mild geomagnetic activity
from a coronal hole wind stream. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 600 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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