[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 March 23 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 2 10:30:51 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0107UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 164/118 162/116 158/112
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 1-Mar reached R1 levels, with
one M1.1 solar flare at 01/0106UT from AR3234 (N24W46, beta).
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
AR3234 is currently the largest and most flare productive region,
and has shown unstable growth over the past 24 hours. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Returning region
AR32123, which previously produced many M-class flares, is currently
rotating on to the eastern limb but is not yet visible enough
to determine its magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 2-4 Mar, which a chance for isolated
low-level R2 flares. No geoeffective CMEs were observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 1-Mar was on a declining trend, and
ranged between 724 to 516km/s, and is currently near 520 km/s.
The solar wind speed is expected to continue its declining trend
over 2-4 Mar, but may begin to increase again by the end of the
period due to an equatorial coronal hole. The peak interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 31121122
Cocos Island 4 21121121
Darwin - --------
Townsville 7 31131122
Learmonth 8 31131123
Alice Springs 7 31131122
Gingin 7 31120133
Canberra 4 31120012
Hobart 5 31120112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 21120023
Casey 17 43541122
Mawson 21 44342235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 79 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24 6533 2144
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 10 G0
03 Mar 8 G0
04 Mar 12 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 1-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 2-4
Mar, with a slight chance of an isolated period of G1 on 4-Mar
due to an equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
04 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 1-Mar were normal. HF conditions
over 2-4 Mar are expected to be normal, with some mild degradations
possible late on 4-Mar due to an equatorial coronal hole. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
03 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
04 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on
1 March and is current for 1-3 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were 15-30% enhanced on UT day
1-Mar. Sporadic-E was observed at most sites during local dawn.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20%
enhanced over 2-4 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 636 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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