[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 March 23 issued 2331 UT on 05 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 6 10:31:27 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0252UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 1641UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 1701UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M5.0 2136UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 190/143 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Mar was at the R2 level
due to a short duration M5 flare from solar region AR3243(N18W60,
beta). Solar region AR3242(N11E30, beta-gamma) has increased
in magnetic complexity and produced an M1.0 flare at 05/1701UT.
Surprisingly a small region, AR3238(N09W15, alpha), produced
two M1 flares, an M1.3 at 05/0252UT and an M1.0 at 05/1641UT.
The M1.0 flare appeared to be associated with some minor on disk
plasma motion visible in SDO193 imagery and a subsequent narrow
faint CME in LASCO C2 imagery. There is some event ambiguity
as two of the M1 flares events overlapped. If this on disk/coronagraph
pairing is correct, subsequent event modelling indicates a possible
very minor glancing blow CME arrival mid UT day 08-Mar. A south
east CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 05/1323UT but
could not be associated with on disk activity. A solar filament
located at S30W70 partially erupted 05/08-11UT but no CME followed.
Overall, no new significant Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
Solar regions AR3243(N18W60, beta), AR3242(N11E30, beta-gamma),
AR3245(S24E50, beta), and A3244(S21W43,beta) all showed minor
development. Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R0-R1
level for 06-08 Mar. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Mar was
elevated with a slightly increasing trend due to a coronal hole
wind stream. The solar wind speed ranged between 491 to 610km/s,
and is currently steady near 606 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -7nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 16 32334342
Cocos Island 13 32323341
Darwin - --------
Townsville 16 32334342
Learmonth 17 42334342
Alice Springs 16 32334342
Gingin 20 42334352
Canberra 15 32334242
Hobart 17 32334343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 29 32555443
Casey 31 54634343
Mawson 46 35554473
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 89 (Minor storm)
Hobart 58 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3223 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 20 G0, G1 periods possible
07 Mar 14 G0, slight chance of G1
08 Mar 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 3 March and
is current for 5-6 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 05-Mar, with mildly elevated
geomagnetic activity levels due to a coronal hole wind stream.
Periods of G1-G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. Isolated periods of G1 conditions are possible
on 06 Mar due to mild geomagnetic activity induced from an equatorial
coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on 05-Mar were mildly degraded
at middle to high latitudes, particularly during local night
hours. Further degradations in HF conditions at middle to high
latitudes are expected 06 Mar due to continuing mild geomagnetic
activity from an equatorial coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-40%.
Southern Australian Region:
Variable conditions, MUFs depressed 15% to 30% enhanced.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day, with periods of absorption at Mawson.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 80 Depressed 15 to 20%/enhanced 10 to 20%
07 Mar 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/enhanced 10 to 20%
08 Mar 110 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on
4 March and is current for 4-6 Mar. ASWFC HF Communications Warning
27 was issued on 5 March and is current for 6-7 Mar. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-Mar were 20-40% enhanced
in the northern Australian region. Southern Australian region
MUFs were depressed 15% during the local day at Canberra and
Hobart, whilst 30% enhanced at Perth during the local day. Mild
spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be depressed 15-20% for the southern Australian
region and near to 15% enhanced in the northern Australian region
during 05-06 Mar. A very brief (less than 10 minutes) minor fadeout
may have been experienced due to the M5 flare at 05/2135UT. HF
communicators in the southern Australian region should use a
T-index of 50,and northern Australian region HF communicators
should use a T-index of 110.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 23500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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