[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 29 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0844UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Jun was at the R1 level,
due to a slowly declining M1.9 flare at 28/0844UT from AR3340
(N23W69, beta). This region is in decay as it approaches the
north west solar limb. The recent rapidly developing AR3354(N12W01,
beta-gamma-delta) continues to grow, though appears to have now
slowed in its growth rate. This moderately large sized solar
region has increased in magnetic complexity, with small weak
mixed magnetic polarities now apparent. Overall the leader and
trailer spots and opposing magnetic polarities appear somewhat
separated as the region develops and AR3354 is currently the
largest region on the solar disk. This region produced A C5.4
flare at 28/1839UT, along with three C1 flares . Small solar
region AR3348(S32W12, beta), which consists of a number of tiny
spots and appears to be decaying, produced a C5.0 flare at 28/1858UT.
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. Other sunspot regions are very small. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 29-Jun to 01-Jul, with
a chance of R2 flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A sequence of minor very narrow faint CMEs were observed
to the north west from 28/0312UT, possibly from AR3340 and recently
departed AR3338. Further modelling of the slow small solar filament
eruption on 27-Jun from the north east solar quadrant, shows
a weak glancing blow to the Earth's magnetosphere arriving mid
01-Jul. The solar wind speed on UT day 28-Jun declined slightly,
ranging from 412 to 501 km/s, and is currently near 440 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to further decline to background
levels over 29-30 Jun. A minor enhancement in the solar wind
parameters may be experienced on 01-Jul. A small coronal hole
is visible at the solar central meridian at solar latitude S40.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12121012
Cocos Island 5 12221022
Darwin 4 12121111
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 7 22------
Alice Springs 4 12121112
Gingin 6 22221023
Canberra 4 12121012
Hobart 4 12131011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 21221000
Casey 10 33331122
Mawson 29 44333265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 3322 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 6 G0
30 Jun 6 G0
01 Jul 17 G0, slight chance of an isolated G1 period
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Jun. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G1-G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 29-Jun to 01-Jul, with a slight increase in geomagnetic
possible on 01-Jul due to a recent small solar filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 28-Jun were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be normal over 29-Jun-01
Jul, with mildly degraded conditions at times during local night
hours for middle to high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Jun 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jul 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Jun in
the Australian region were generally near predicted monthly values.
Spread F was observed during local night hours at Hobart, Perth
and Townsville. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted
values to 15% enhanced over 29-Jun-01-Jul. Mildly degraded HF
conditions may be experienced during local night hours. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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