[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 28 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 1514UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Jun was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.2 flare at 27/1514UT from AR3340 (N20W62, beta).
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3354 (N12E13, beta) is now the largest region
on the solar disk and has continued to exhibit rapid spot development
over the UT day. AR3340 has shown some decay in its intermediate
spots. AR3348 (S33E01, beta) has shown spot growth over the 24-hour
period. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 28-30 Jun,
with a chance of R2. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
A coronal dimming event was observed, visible in SDO imagery
from 27/0050UT near to the centre of the disk at ~N05W03. No
CME was observed in association with this activity. A filament
was observed lifting off the disk in the northeast solar quadrant
from 27/1804UT. A subsequent CME is visible in STEREO-A coronagraph
imagery at 27/2053UT. Initial modelling of this CME suggests
a glancing impact to Earth is possible on 01-Jul. However, further
analysis of this CME will be completed once additional imagery
is available. The solar wind speed on UT day 27-Jun declined,
ranging from 450 to 555 km/s, and is currently near 490 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline to background
levels over 28-30 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 4 22211111
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 7 32232111
Learmonth 7 32222122
Alice Springs 5 22222111
Gingin 9 32232222
Canberra 6 22132111
Hobart 6 22232111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
Macquarie Island 7 21242110
Casey 9 33321122
Mawson 36 55433265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 2223 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 8 G0
29 Jun 6 G0
30 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Jun. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 28-30 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 27-Jun were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be normal over 28-30 Jun,
with mildly degraded conditions at times during local night hours
for middle to high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on
26 June and is current for 26-28 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 27-Jun in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours at Hobart and Perth. MUFs are generally expected
to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced over 28-30 Jun. Mildly
degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local night
hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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