[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 27 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 1622UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Jun was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.6 flare at 26/1622UT from AR3340 (N20W48, beta-gamma).
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3340 is the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the solar disk and has
shown slight decay in its intermediate spots over the UT day.
AR3354 (N15E28, beta) has grown rapidly since appearing on the
solar disk early on UT day 26-Jun. An unnumbered region recently
rotated over the eastern limb at S16E73 (alpha) and appears stable.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 27-29 Jun, with
a chance of R2. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered
geoeffective. An east-directed CME was observed, visible in STEREO-A
coronagraph imagery from 26/1609UT. This CME is likely associated
with an eastern limb prominence eruption, originating near to
N12E75. Modelling indicates this CME does not contain an Earth-directed
component. The solar wind speed on UT day 26-Jun was mostly stable,
ranging from 485 to 580 km/s, and is currently near 505 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline to background
levels over 27-29 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 22122312
Cocos Island 5 12122202
Darwin 5 22022202
Townsville 7 22122213
Learmonth 9 23222313
Alice Springs 6 22122212
Gingin 9 22222323
Canberra 7 22122312
Hobart 6 21122312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
Macquarie Island 10 11233422
Casey 12 34223223
Mawson 25 45434433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 5211 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 12 G0
28 Jun 8 G0
29 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 27-29 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 26-Jun were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be normal over 27-29 Jun,
with mildly degraded conditions at times during local night hours
for middle to high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on
26 June and is current for 26-28 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 26-Jun in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in Southern Australian
regions. Spread F was observed during local night hours at Hobart
and Perth. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted values
to 15% enhanced over 27-29 Jun. Mildly degraded HF conditions
may be experienced during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 11.0 p/cc Temp: 241000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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