[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 June 23 issued 2331 UT on 25 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 26 09:31:02 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Jun was at the R0 level
with the largest flares a C8.5 at 25/1218UT from AR3341(S15W05,
beta) and a C6.0 at 25/0708UT from AR3335(S15W79, beta). Solar
region AR3341 consists of a main spot surrounded by field of
smaller spots which appear to be both decaying and growing, with
small spots growing to the north west of this regions main spot
and decaying to its south east. Solar region AR3340(N20W33, beta-gamma)
produced several low level C flares and is currently the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the disk. This region
is growing with weak mixed magnetic polarity in its trailer spots.
Solar region AR3335(S15W79, alpha) produced several low level
C flares and is rotating off disk. Solar region AR3339(S19W33,
beta) is showing decay in its trailer spots. Other regions are
small. There are currently 13 numbered regions on the solar disk.
No significant Earth directed CMEs have been observed. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 level over 26-28 Jun,
with a chance of an R2 flare (regions AR3340 and AR3341). The
solar wind speed on UT day 25-Jun was moderately elevated following
a recent weak shock, ranging from 475 to 552km/s, and is currently
near 490km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 11nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+7 to -10nT. IMF Bz was southward for the interval 24/2151-25/0034UT.
The ACE satellite EPAM low energy ion channel is currently showing
no increasing flux trend, implying an Earth miss of the expected
glancing blow arrival on 26-Jun from the M4 flare/CME on 22-Jun.
A solar coronal hole is currently in the south east solar quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 43213321
Cocos Island 9 43212211
Darwin 9 43212221
Townsville 12 43213322
Learmonth 10 43212231
Alice Springs 9 33212321
Gingin 11 42203331
Canberra 10 33213321
Hobart 10 33213321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
Macquarie Island 13 42213431
Casey 11 33323222
Mawson 36 74312362
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 17 2322 3354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 12 G0, slight chance of a G1 period
27 Jun 12 G0, slight chance of a G1 period
28 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 24 June and
is current for 25-26 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 25-Jun. In the Antarctic region
G0 conditions were observed at Macquarie Island and Casey, and
isolated G2 and G3 periods were observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are now expected over 26-28 Jun, with a reduced chance
of mildly enhanced geomagnetic conditions on 26-Jun due to a
glancing blow from a recent CME, as spaced based data currently
implies that it will miss the Earth or arrive later than expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 25-Jun were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be normal over 26-28 Jun,
with mildly degraded conditions at times during local night hours
for middle to high latitudes. Forecast moderately degraded HF
conditions for 26-Jun are now not expected. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25-35%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
27 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
28 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 25-Jun in
the Australian region were generally near predicted monthly values
to 35% enhanced. Spread F was occasionally observed during local
night hours. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced
during local night hours. MUFs are generally expected to be near
predicted values to 15% enhanced over 26-28 Jun. Moderately degraded
HF conditions forecast for southern region Australia on 26-Jun
are now not expected. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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