[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 25 09:30:59 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1217UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Jun was at the R1 level
due to an M1 flare from solar region AR3337(N15W46, beta). This
is a small region that has recently shown some minor growth in
its trailer spots. Solar region AR3340(N20W19, beta-gamma), which
is currently the most significant region on the solar disk has
shown considerable development in its intermediate spots and
has increased in magnetic complexity. Solar region AR3335(S15W65,
beta) recently the largest spot group on the disk, produced only
minor C class flares as it approaches the south west solar limb
and exhibited umbral reconfiguration within its large leader
spot along with decay of its trailer spots. Very small regions
AR3338(N09W47, beta) and AR3352(N07W54, beta) have shown some
development. Other regions have been mostly stable. There are
currently 14 numbered regions on the solar disk. Most of these
regions are quite small. No significant Earth directed CMEs have
been observed. Narrow north west directed CMEs were observed
during the UT day but are considered far side activity. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 25-27 Jun, with
a increased chance of an R2 flare. The solar wind speed on UT
day 24-Jun was generally moderately elevated and steady, ranging
from 416 to 535km/s, and is currently near 496km/s. A very weak
CME shock signature possibly from the recent X1 flare/southeast
CME on 20-Jun, was observed in the solar wind data at 24/1916UT.
IMF total field increased after the weak shock arrival and IMF
Bz fluctuated southward 24/1946-2033UT and from 24/2151UT. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10 to -10nT. Bz
is currently orientated southwards. An earlier minor Bz southward
period was observed 24/0255-0455UT. Two very small coronal holes
are visible just west of the solar central meridian at N40 and
N00, and high latitude coronal holes are visible in the far north
east and south east solar quadrants.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 23323223
Cocos Island 7 13222122
Darwin 9 23322222
Townsville 11 23322233
Learmonth 12 23323233
Alice Springs 8 13322222
Gingin 10 23313223
Canberra 9 13213223
Hobart 8 12213223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
Macquarie Island 10 02214323
Casey 13 23332333
Mawson 45 45533656
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3213 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 15 G0, chance of G1 period early in UT day.
26 Jun 18 G0-G1
27 Jun 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 23 June and
is current for 26 Jun only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 24-Jun. In the Antarctic region
G0 conditions were observed at Macquarie Island and Casey, and
G1-G2 conditions were observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 25-27 Jun. Mildly enhanced geomagnetic conditions
may be experienced early on 25-Jun following a very weak CME
shock arrival late on 24-Jun. G0-G1 conditions are expected on
26-Jun due to a glancing blow from a recent CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 24-Jun were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be normal over 25-27 Jun.
Moderately degraded HF conditions may be experienced at middle
to high latitudes on 25 and 26-Jun during local night hours,
due to glancing blows from recent CMEs. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near to 15% above predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 58 was issued on
23 June and is current for 23-25 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 24-Jun in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. Enhanced MUFs
were observed at Cocos Island. Spread F was observed at Hobart
and Townsville during local night hours. Mildly degraded HF conditions
may be experienced during local night hours. MUFs are generally
expected to be near predicted values over 25-27 Jun. Moderately
degraded HF conditions may be experienced for the southern Australian
region during local night hours on 25 and 26-Jun due to mildly
increased geomagnetic activity from glancing CME blows. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 87600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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