[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 June 23 issued 2331 UT on 23 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 24 09:31:13 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.8 22/2344UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Jun was at the R0 level.
An M4.8 flare was observed late in the UT day yesterday at 22/2344UT.
This flare was from region AR3341(S15E22, beta) and was in late
decline at the very start of the UT day 23-Jun, with GOES X-ray
flux above the R1 (M1) level. The flare was associated with a
predominately south and slightly east CME, with the western edge
of the CME just crossing the Sun-Earth line in LASCO imagery.
Weak Type II/IV solar radio sweeps were also observed in association
with the flare. Event modelling whilst restricted by a data gap
in space based coronagraph imagery, indicates that the bulk of
the CME will pass under and to the side of the Earth, with the
top edge of the CME possibly grazing the underside of the Earths
magnetosphere during the interval 25/2300UT to 26/0900UT. There
are currently 13 numbered regions on the solar disk. It is of
note that most of the solar regions currently on the solar disk
are quite low in solar latitude, in bands either side of the
solar equator, possibly indicating the stage of the solar cycle.
The four largest regions currently on the solar disk are AR3340(N20W06,
beta), AR3335(S15W52, beta), AR3339(S19W06, beta) and AR3341(S15E22,
beta). These solar regions are more small to medium in size.
No solar region currently exhibits significant magnetic complexity,
with only C class flaring observed for 23-Jun. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 24-26 Jun, with a chance
of R2. The solar wind speed on UT day 23-Jun mildly increased
towards the end of the UT day, ranging from 376 to 472 km/s,
and is currently near 460 km/s. The cause of the mild increase
is unclear, perhaps a weak CME signature from the 20-Jun X1 flare/south
east directed CME. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +7 to -7 nT. Two very small coronal holes are currently at
the solar central meridian at N40 and N00.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 12122222
Cocos Island 5 12121122
Darwin 5 11122222
Townsville 6 12122222
Learmonth 6 12222222
Alice Springs 5 02122222
Gingin 6 12222222
Canberra 6 11032321
Hobart 8 02132331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
Macquarie Island 9 01043330
Casey 8 23222222
Mawson 20 43234235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1222 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 8 G0
25 Jun 12 G0
26 Jun 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 23 June and
is current for 26 Jun only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 23-Jun. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 24-25 Jun. G0-G1 conditions
are expected on 26-Jun due to a glancing blow from a recent CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Jun Normal Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 23-Jun were mostly
normal, with mildly to moderately degraded conditions during
local night hours for middle to high latitudes. HF conditions
are expected to be normal over 24-25 Jun, with mildly degraded
conditions during local night hours for middle to high latitudes.
Moderately degraded HF conditions may be experienced at middle
to high latitudes on 26-Jun due to an anticipated glancing blow
from a recent CME. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 58 was issued on
23 June and is current for 23-25 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 23-Jun in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over
24-26 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions are possible during local
night hours. Moderately degraded HF conditions may be experienced
for the southern Australian region on 26-Jun due to an anticipated
glancing blow from a recent CME. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are probable. A very minor fadeout impacting the E region ionospheric
layer was observed yesterday at Darwin in association with the M4
flare 22/2344UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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