[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 23 09:30:12 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1121UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Jun was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.1 flare at 22/1121UT from AR3341 (S15E35, gamma).
There are currently eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and four unnumbered regions. AR3340 (N20E08, beta-gamma)
is the most magnetically complex region and has exhibited growth
in its trailer spots over the UT day. AR3337 (N15W19, beta) has
shown growth. AR3335 (S15W38, beta) and AR3339 (S18E05, beta)
have both exhibited spot development in their trailer spots over
the 24-hour period. Four unnumbered regions are visible at S14E57
(alpha), S18W08 (beta), N22E78 (alpha) and N09E55 (beta). All
unnumbered regions have shown minor growth since appearing on
the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over
23-25 Jun, with a chance of R2. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT
day 22-Jun decreased, ranging from 385 to 480 km/s, and is currently
near 405 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline to background
levels over 23-25 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 12223222
Cocos Island 3 11111121
Darwin 4 12122111
Townsville 7 12223212
Learmonth 7 12223222
Alice Springs 6 12222221
Gingin 8 12123232
Canberra 6 12223111
Hobart 7 01233222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
Macquarie Island 15 01444332
Casey 8 23222222
Mawson 15 34333323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3310 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 8 G0
24 Jun 8 G0
25 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 22-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 23-25 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 22-Jun were mostly
normal, with mildly to moderately degraded conditions during
local night hours for middle to high latitudes. HF conditions
are expected to be normal over 23-25 Jun, with mildly degraded
conditions during local night hours for middle to high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 60% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on
21 June and is current for 21-23 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 22-Jun in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours in Hobart and Townsville. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted values over 23-25 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions
are possible during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 193000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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