[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 22 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1244UT possible lower European
M1.0 1538UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Jun was at the R1 level,
due to two low level M-class flares, the largest of which was
an M1.1 flare at 21/1244UT from AR3341 (S15E45, beta-delta).
There are currently twelve numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and three unnumbered regions. AR3342 (S22W85,
beta) is currently rotating over the western limb and appears
unstable. AR3344 (N22W57, beta), AR3337 (N16W06, beta-gamma)
and AR3346 (N08E23, beta) have all exhibited spot development
over the UT day. AR3335 (S15W27, beta-delta) has shown minor
growth in its intermediate spots. AR3340 (N20E18, beta) and AR3341
(S15E45, beta-delta) have both exhibited growth in their trailer
spots. AR3343 (N18W23, beta) has shown some minor growth over
the 24-hour period. Three unnumbered regions are visible at S26E03
(alpha), S11E69 (alpha) and N15E67 (alpha). All unnumbered regions
are stable and unremarkable. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1
level over 22-24 Jun, with a chance of R2. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A northeast-directed CME was observed,
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 21/0948UT. This
CME is associated with a prominence eruption visible in GOES
SUVI imagery, erupting off the northeast limb from 21/0905UT.
This CME is not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed
on UT day 21-Jun increased, ranging from 400 to 485 km/s, and
is currently near 465 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 22-24 Jun due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 22101002
Cocos Island 3 22110002
Darwin 3 22101002
Townsville 4 22211002
Learmonth 4 22211002
Alice Springs 3 22101002
Gingin 4 22100003
Canberra 2 12100002
Hobart 2 12100002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 12100001
Casey 7 33220013
Mawson 12 53311112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 9 3311 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 10 G0
23 Jun 8 G0
24 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 21-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 22-24 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 21-Jun were mostly
normal, with mildly to moderately degraded conditions during
local night hours for middle to high latitudes. HF conditions
are expected to be normal over 22-24 Jun, with mildly degraded
conditions during local night hours for middle to high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 60% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on
21 June and is current for 21-23 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 21-Jun in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours in Hobart and Perth. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted values over 22-24 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions are
possible during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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