[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 June 23 issued 0055 UT on 21 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 21 10:55:25 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
Corrected Copy: reissued for correction of observed solar R level.
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 1125UT possible lower European
M1.0 1548UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1633UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
X1.1 1709UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 185/138 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Jun was at the R3 level
due to an X1.1 flare from solar region AR3341(S15E62, beta-gamma).
This flare was was associated with a south-east directed CME.
Associated discrete frequency solar radio burst SFU emission
values were generally relatively minor with the 10cm wavelength
solar radio flux exceeding 100% of background. No enhancement
in the GOES solar proton flux followed the flare. Solar radio
Type II and IV sweeps were also observed. This region appears
to have developed magnetic complexity in the small spots above
and to the east of the main spot. The M1 flares were from solar
region AR3342(S22W70, beta-gamma). This region appears to have
grown in size and developed magnetic complexity in its leader
spots as it approaches the solar south west limb. The other region
of recent note AR3335(S15W10, beta) continues to slowly decay.
New smaller regions AR3344(N22W41, beta) and AR3345(N10E65, beta)
are showing growth. Solar region AR3340(N20E35, beta-gamma) is
also growing in its trailer spots. Other regions are either stable
or in decay. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R1 level with the chance of R2 flares over 21-23 Jun. No significant
Earth directed CMEs have been observed. The CME associated with
the X1.1 flare is predominately directed away from the Earth
with event modelling only showing a very minor interaction with
the Earth's magnetosphere possibly arriving at 23/1300UT. The
M1.8 flare appeared to be followed by a slow narrow south west
directed CME with subsequent modelling showing an Earth miss.
An eruptive north west solar limb prominence and slow CME directed
to the north west observed from 20/0530UT in LASCO C2 is also
modelled as an Earth miss. The solar wind speed on UT day 20-Jun
was variable, ranging from 394 to 477km/s, and is currently near
410km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 8nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to
-7nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) fluctuated southward
during the UT day. The solar wind speed is currently mildly elevated
due to a solar coronal hole wind stream. Solar wind speed showed
a decline towards the end of the UT day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 21103211
Cocos Island 4 21112211
Darwin 4 21103101
Townsville 6 22113212
Learmonth 6 22113212
Alice Springs 4 21103111
Gingin 4 21102122
Canberra 5 12103211
Hobart 4 11103211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
Macquarie Island 8 21005110
Casey 10 23224222
Mawson 19 44233225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2221 3243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 10 G0
22 Jun 7 G0
23 Jun 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Jun. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 observed
at Macquarie Island and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 21-23 Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 20-Jun were mostly
normal, with mildly to moderately degraded conditions during
local night hours for middle to high latitudes. HF conditions
are expected to be normal over 21-23 Jun, with mildly degraded
conditions during local night hours for middle to high latitudes.
Increased chance of shortwave fadeouts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Jun 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Jun 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on
18 June and is current for 19-21 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 20-Jun in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours for the south eastern Australian region and at Townsville.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 21-23 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced
during local night hours. Increased chance of shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list