[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 June 23 issued 2331 UT on 29 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 30 09:31:03 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.8 1415UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Jun was at the R1 level,
due to an M3.8 flare from solar region AR3354(N12W11, beta-gamma-delta).
Earlier activity was observed in this region with a spray across
the disk to the north east and associated C3 solar X-ray enhancement
during 29/0331-0422UT. The leader and trailer spots of AR3354
appeared to have increased in separation as this region develops,
with small spots now emerging inbetween. Small spots of mixed
magnetic polarity have increased, in particular to the north
of the the leader spots, with a slight increase in magnetic gradient
in the past 24 hours observed in a small spot on the inside edge
the trailer spots. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. R1 flare producing region AR3340(N20W87,
beta) is rotating off disk. Other sunspot regions are very small
and unremarkable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1
level over 30-Jun to 02-Jul, with a chance of isolated R2 flare
activity. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The M3.8
flare was followed by a faint northward directed (out of the
ecliptic plane) minor CME. Shortly afterwards a more obvious
non Earth directed CME from an erupting solar prominence was
observed on the north east solar limb. A faint narrow CME was
observed to the south east from 29/0824UT in LASCO C2 and is
presumed to be from behind the solar limb. The solar wind speed
on UT day 29-Jun slightly increased then decreased, ranging from
418 to 537 km/s, and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. Periods of mildly southward
IMF conditions were observed during 29/0341-11007UT and 29/1429-2210UT.
This origin of the minor increase in solar wind speed and mild
southward Bz conditions is unclear. The solar wind speed remains
expected to further decline to background levels, with a chance
for a minor enhancement in the solar wind parameters on 01-Jul.
A small coronal hole is visible just west of the solar central
meridian at solar latitude S40.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 13 24341232
Cocos Island 9 13330232
Darwin 12 23341232
Townsville 14 24342232
Learmonth 12 241-----
Alice Springs 13 24341232
Gingin 14 23342242
Canberra 13 14342232
Hobart 13 13342332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 26 14363443
Casey 14 33332333
Mawson 41 46542356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2312 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 6 G0
01 Jul 17 G0, slight chance of an isolated G1 period
02 Jul 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Jun. In the Antarctic region G0 conditions
were observed at Casey, an isolated G2 period was observed at
Macquarie Island and G1-G2 periods were observed at Mawson. G0
geomagnetic conditions are generally expected over 30-Jun to
02-Jul, with a slight increase in geomagnetic activity possible
on 01-Jul due to a recent small solar filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
01 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 29-Jun were mostly
normal. HF conditions are expected to be normal over 30-Jun to
02-Jul, with mildly degraded conditions at times during local
night hours for middle to high latitudes on 01-Jul. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% at Mawson during the local day.
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced at Casey.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jul 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Jul 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on
29 June and is current for 29 Jun to 1 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 29-Jun in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours at Hobart. MUFs are generally expected to be near
predicted values to 15% enhanced over 30-Jun to 02-Jul. Mildly
degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local night
hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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