[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 19 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0031UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.5 1353UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Jun was at the R1 level,
due to an M2.5 flare from AR3336 (S25E20, beta) at 18/1353UT.
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3335 (S15E14, beta-gamma-delta)
remains the most magnetically complex region and has shown growth
in its leading spot. The leading spot of AR3333 (S11W15, beta-gamma)
has decayed, whilst its trailers spots have grown. AR3332 (S08W70,
beta) has exhibited minor growth over the UT day. Newly numbered
AR3340 (N20E58, beta) has exhibited spot development since appearing
on the solar disk. Two unnumbered regions are visible at S23W44
(alpha) and N18W52 (alpha). Both unnumbered regions have grown
but are generally unremarkable. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 19-21 Jun. Several CMEs were observed, but
none are considered geoeffective. A narrow southeast-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
18/1412UT. This CME is associated with the aforementioned M2.5
flare from AR3336, but is not considered geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 18-Jun declined, ranging from 375 to 505
km/s, and is currently near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +3 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels on 19-Jun. A moderate sized
southern hemisphere coronal hole is now in the western hemisphere
and may influence the solar wind speed late on 20-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22120232
Cocos Island 4 12110131
Darwin 5 21120132
Townsville 6 21120232
Learmonth 6 21220232
Alice Springs 5 21120231
Gingin 8 22121242
Canberra 6 22120231
Hobart 8 22131331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
Macquarie Island 13 13133440
Casey 8 32221132
Mawson 45 55532275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3321 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 8 G0
20 Jun 8 G0
21 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18-Jun. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 19-21 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 18-Jun were mostly
normal, with mildly to moderately degraded conditions during
local night hours for middle to high latitudes. HF conditions
are expected to be normal over 19-21 Jun, with mildly degraded
conditions during local night hours for middle to high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18-Jun in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values. Strong
spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 19-21 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced
during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 558 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 180000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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