[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 20 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0350UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 1214UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Jun was at the R1 level,
due to two low level M class flares, both from solar region AR3341(S15E71,
beta). Solar regions AR3335(S15E03, gamma), AR3338(N11E22, beta),
AR3340(N20E47, beta-gamma) and also AR3341 produced C class flares.
AR3335 is currently the largest region on the disk and is showing
minor recent intermediate spot development, though reviewing
over recent days suggests an overall decaying trend particularly
in the trailer spots. Solar region AR3340 and AR3342 have shown
some recent growth, though they are currently not that significant.
Region AR3341 which produced the M1 flares, is still very close
to the eastern solar limb, and currently appears stable. Solar
region AR3333(S11W26, beta-gamma) shows both growth and decay
in its intermediate spots, but with an overall decaying trend.
Other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. There are
currently eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 20-22
Jun. No significant Earth directed CMEs have been observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 19-Jun increased, ranging from 373
to 468km/s, and is currently near 500km/s. An offset is evident
in the DSCOVR solar wind speed, density and temperature parameters
at 19/1512UT, but not evident in the DSCOVR solar wind total
magnetic field parameter (Bt). This possibly could be a reverse
shock signature where not all solar wind parameters increase
and some abruptly decrease, but speculatively it is felt to be
perhaps more of an observational instrumentation issue. Looking
at the ACE satellite solar wind data for confirmation there is
more of a steady rise in ACE wind speed after 19/1000UT with
no abrupt step change in the data, though with an increase in
data noise 19/1120-1550UT, suggesting only a mild coronal hole
wind speed enhancement. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +7 to -7nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) fluctuated
southward during the UT day. The slight rise in solar wind speed
is considered to be due to a coronal hole in the southern solar
hemisphere at solar longitude W30.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 21122322
Cocos Island 6 22121311
Darwin 6 21122312
Townsville 7 21122322
Learmonth 7 21222322
Alice Springs 5 11122311
Gingin 8 12223322
Canberra 4 11012311
Hobart 6 11013321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
Macquarie Island 9 11114421
Casey 10 23232322
Mawson 34 53332565
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 3312 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 11 G0
21 Jun 10 G0
22 Jun 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Jun. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1-G2
observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
20-22 Jun, with only a slight influence expected from the currently
moderately coronal hole elevated solar wind speed conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 19-Jun were mostly
normal, with mildly to moderately degraded conditions during
local night hours for middle to high latitudes. HF conditions
are expected to be normal over 20-22 Jun, with mildly degraded
conditions during local night hours for middle to high latitudes.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15-20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Jun 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Jun 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on
18 June and is current for 19-21 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19-Jun in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Strong spread F was observed during
local night hours for the south eastern Australian region and
at Townsville. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
values to 15% enhanced over 20-22 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions
may be experienced during local night hours. A very brief minor
fadeout restricted to lower HF frequencies was observed at Darwin
at 19/0350UT. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 47400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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