[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 18 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Jun was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3335 (S15E27, beta-gamma-delta) is the most magnetically
complex region on the solar disk and has shown growth in its
leading spot. AR3333 (S11W02, beta) has exhibited spot development
over the UT day, mainly in its intermediate spots. AR3338 (N11E46,
beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots over the 24-hour
period. Newly numbered AR3339 (S18E69, alpha) recently rotated
over the eastern limb and is stable. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region is visible
at N15W23 (beta) and has decayed. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 18-20 Jun. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. A southeast-directed CME
was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 17/1048UT.
This CME is associated with on-the-limb activity visible in GOES-SUVI
imagery at ~S24E85 and is not considered Earth-directed. A northwest-directed
CME is visible in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery at 17/1723UT which
is considered to be a farside event and not geoeffective. A moderate
sized filament is visible lifting off the solar disk in the northwest
quadrant from 17/1742UT in H-alpha imagery, however no CME has
been observed in coronagraph imagery as yet. The solar wind speed
on UT day 17-Jun declined, ranging from 490 to 620 km/s, and
is currently near 505 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decline over 18-19 Jun due to waning coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects. A moderate sized southern hemisphere
coronal hole is currently crossing the central meridian and may
influence the solar wind speed late on 20-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22222221
Cocos Island 3 11111121
Darwin 5 22211122
Townsville 5 22122121
Learmonth 8 22222232
Alice Springs 6 22222121
Gingin 9 32222232
Canberra 6 22222221
Hobart 6 22222221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 9 21234212
Casey 12 33222333
Mawson 37 34533374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 36 5644 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 10 G0
19 Jun 8 G0
20 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 17-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 and a period of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 18-20 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 17-Jun were mostly
normal, with mildly to moderately degraded conditions during
local night hours for middle to high latitudes. HF conditions
are expected to be normal over 18-20 Jun, with mildly degraded
conditions during local night hours for middle to high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Jun 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Jun were
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in northern Australian
regions. Strong spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted values
to 15% enhanced over 18-20 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions may
be experienced during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 647 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 304000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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