[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 17 09:30:58 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0530UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1038UT possible lower European
M1.0 1959UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jun was at the R1 level,
with three low level M-class flares. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3335 (S15E40, gamma-delta) is the most magnetically
complex region and has shown growth, particularly in its leading
spot. AR3336 (S25E45, beta-gamma) has decayed over the UT day.
AR3338 (N11E59, beta) has also exhibited growth in its leading
spot over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Two unnumbered regions are visible at N18W24
(beta) and N27W40 (alpha). Both unnumbered regions are currently
unremarkable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 17-19 Jun. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered
geoeffective. A west-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery from 16/0512UT. No obvious on-disk source
is associated with this CME and is therefore considered a farside
event. An east-directed CME visible from 16/0548UT is associated
with the M1.0 flare from AR3337 at 16/0530UT. This CME is not
considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Jun
was mostly stable, ranging from 575 to 740 km/s, and is currently
near 685 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+10 to -11 nT. Several short periods of southward IMF conditions
were observed in the first half of the UT day. IMF conditions
generally settled in the second half of the UT day. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 17-19 Jun, with
a declining trend.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: G2
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 17 34344322
Cocos Island 10 33332211
Darwin 15 44333312
Townsville 19 44344322
Learmonth 17 34344322
Alice Springs 17 34344322
Gingin 17 34344322
Canberra 20 34354322
Hobart 24 34364322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
Macquarie Island 49 45576432
Casey 36 44344662
Mawson 67 77544456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 14 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 86 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 42
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 26 1111 4556
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 13 G0
18 Jun 10 G0
19 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Jun, due to an isolated period of G2 observed
at Hobart. G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
17-19 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 16-Jun were normal,
with mildly to moderately degraded conditions during local night
hours for middle to high latitudes. HF conditions are expected
to be normal over 17-19 Jun, with mildly degraded conditions
during local night hours for middle to high latitudes. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Jun 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Jun 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Jun were
near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced in southern Australian
regions. Strong spread F was observed at Hobart, Darwin and Learmonth
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted values to 15% enhanced over 17-19 Jun. Mildly degraded
conditions may be experienced during local night hours. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 69700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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