[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 June 23 issued 2331 UT on 15 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 16 09:31:03 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jun was R0. The largest
flare of the day was a long duration C9.7 at 15/1255UT from AR3336(S21E60,
beta). Two new currently small regions are in the north east
solar quadrant AR3337(N17E74, alpha) and AR3338(N11E75, alpha).
Solar regions AR3335(S15E56, beta) and new AR3338 also produced
minor C class flares. Solar regions AR3333(S11E27, beta), AR3335
and AR3336 are currently the largest spot groups on the solar
disk. Solar regions AR3333 and AR3335 are both showing intermediate
spot development. Overall disk flare probabilities for R1 and
R3 flares are currently low at 20% and 1% respectively. There
are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Other
regions were mostly stable. Solar activity is currently expected
to be R0-R1 over 16-18 Jun. Yesterdays small solar filament eruption
centred at S32W45 has been assessed as non Earth directed using
very limited spaced based coronagraph imagery. No new Earth directed
CMEs were observed but spaced based coronagraph imagery was limited.
The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Jun increased and ranged between
313 to 722km/s, as the Earth entered a coronal hole wind stream
after 15/0545UT, with gradually increasing speed and IMF total
field (Bt) after this time until 15/2132UT when a more abrupt
increase in speed from 512km/sec to over 700km/sec was observed.
The increase in wind speed is from a coronal hole now located
in the north western solar quadrant at W40. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 18nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +11 to -13nT. Periods of southward IMF conditions
were observed 15/0700-1912UT. A coronal hole is visible in the
south eastern solar hemisphere centred at S40E30. In the northern
solar hemisphere small weak coronal holes are apparent in SDO/AIA193
imagery near the solar meridian. Old solar region AR3315 which
previously produced R1-Minor flare activity may return to the
solar south east limb at solar latitude S17 on 16-Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 13 11223443
Cocos Island 11 11213442
Darwin 12 11213443
Townsville 14 02223444
Learmonth 13 11223443
Alice Springs 12 01213443
Gingin 18 11124454
Canberra 10 01123343
Hobart 10 01123343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 15 00025443
Casey 12 12223343
Mawson 33 12325466
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 3100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 16 G0, isolated periods of G1 possible
17 Jun 13 G0
18 Jun 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 15 June and
is current for 16 Jun only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 15-Jun, with a mild increase
in geomagnetic activity observed in the second half of the UT
day associated with the Earth's entry into a coronal hole wind
stream. In the Antarctic region isolated periods of G1 were observed
at Macquarie Island and periods of G1 and G2 were observed at
Mawson. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 16-18,
with possible isolated periods of G1 conditions on 16 Jun associated
with the moderately elevated solar wind speed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 15-Jun were fair
to normal, with mildly to moderately degraded conditions during
local night hours for middle to high latitudes. An interval of
increased absorption (~2db) was observed on the Mawson Antarctic
riometer 15/1800-1900UT. HF conditions are expected to continue
to be fair to normal over 16-18 Jun, with mildly degraded conditions
during local night hours for middle to high latitudes particularly
on 16-Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Increased absorption (~2db) briefly observed at Mawson 15/1800-1900UT.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-Jun were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Strong
spread F was observed at Hobart and Townsville during local night
hours. Mildly depressed MUFs (15%) were observed at Hobart after
local dawn this morning. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted values over 16-18 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions may
be experienced during local night hours. Southern Australian
region MUFs may become mildly depressed over 16-17-Jun in association
with mild geomagnetic activity induced by a coronal hole wind
stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 47000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list