[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 15 09:30:13 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jun was R0. The largest
flare of the day was a minor C6.6 flare at 14/2259UT. There are
currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. The regions
in the solar south east solar quadrant AR3333(S11E40, beta),
AR3335 and AR3336(S21E71, alpha) appear to be growing. Solar
region AR3331(S24W48, beta) is showing decay in its trailer spots.
Other regions were mostly stable. Solar activity is currently
expected to be R0-R1 over 15-17 Jun. There is a region of emission
in SDO171 imagery on the north east limb, N12-N25, which may
indicate new solar regions are behind the limb at this solar
latitude range. No significant Earth directed CMEs were observed.
A small 9 degree long solar filament centred at S32W45 erupted
during the interval 14/1717UT-1805UT. Space based coronagraph
imagery will be reviewed for any associated CME as images become
available. Due to the filaments small size and the degree of
western and southern location on the solar disk geo-effectiveness
is expected to be reduced. A faint slow narrow westward CME is
visible from late 13-Jun to early 14-Jun, the solar origin of
this minor CME is uncertain and is currently presumed far side
activity. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Jun slightly declined
and ranged between 330 to 386km/s, though the solar wind data
was noisy making trend interpretation difficult. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -5nT. A small equatorial coronal
may increase solar wind speeds during 15-16 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11010000
Cocos Island 0 10010000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 2 21110000
Alice Springs 0 20000000
Gingin 1 21000000
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22210000
Mawson 12 62110001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2222 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 13 G0, possible isolated G1 period late in UT day
16 Jun 15 G0, possible isolated G1 period
17 Jun 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 14-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 15-17, with possible isolated periods
of G1 over 15-16 Jun due to a small equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 14-Jun were fair
to normal, with mildly degraded conditions during local night
hours for middle to high latitudes. HF conditions are expected
to continue to be fair to normal over 15-17 Jun, with mildly
degraded conditions during local night hours for middle to high
latitudes particularly on 16-Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Jun were
generally near predicted monthly values in the Australian region.
Spread-F was observed during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted values over 15-17 Jun. Mildly degraded
conditions may be experienced during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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