[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 14 09:30:56 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 146/100 144/98 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Jun was R0. The largest
flare of the day was C6 at 1738 UT from a region beyond the northeast
solar limb, AR3334. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk, plus one new region not yet named. AR3331
(S24W14, beta) has shown some minor development. The new region
is near S11E63 with a beta magnetic classification and has grown
over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Low level isolated R1 flares may be possible over 14-16 May.
Several prominence eruptions were observed over
the UT day. A large prominence eruption occurred on the north/
northwest limb from 13/0034 UT and was associated with a CME.
This CME has been analysed not to be geoeffective. A smaller
prominence eruption was observed on the western limb from 13/1129
UT and a western directed CME was associated with this event,
also considered not geoeffective. A prominence eruption was observed
alongside the C6 flare on the northeastern limb, and will be
analysed when imagery is available. No other CMEs were observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Jun was on a general declining
trend and ranged between 492 to 380 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to
be near background levels on 14-Jun. A small coronal hole along
the solar equator may increase solar wind speeds by 15-16 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11210101
Cocos Island 2 12210100
Darwin 2 11110111
Townsville 3 11211101
Learmonth 2 11210101
Alice Springs 1 01110101
Gingin 2 01210100
Canberra 1 01110000
Hobart 1 01110100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 5 13311100
Mawson 8 21222214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2101 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 8 G0
15 Jun 12 G0, slight chance G1
16 Jun 18 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 13-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 14-16, with possible isolated periods
of G1 over 15-16 Jun due to a small equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Poor-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Fair Normal Fair
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 13-Jun were mostly
normal during local daylight hours and fair during local night
hours, particularly at low latitudes. HF conditions are expected
to continue to be normal to fair over 14-16 Jun, with mildly
degraded conditions most likely during local night hours. Further
degradations may be observed by 16-Jun due to some anticipated
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Jun were
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region,
with enhancements up to 20% observed in the southern sites. Spread-F
was observed at Darwin and Hobart. Sporadic-E was observed at
Learmonth and general degraded HF conditions were observed at
Townsville. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted values
over 14-16 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced
during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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