[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 June 23 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 13 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 146/100 148/102 146/100
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Jun was R0, with not significant
solar flares. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. Solar region AR3331 (S24W02, beta-gamma) is
currently the most magnetically complex region on the disk, although
its flare potential currently appears weak. AR3327 (S17W37, beta),
which has previously produced M-class flares, has decayed significantly
over the past 24 hours. All other sunspot regions are stable.
Solar activity is expected to be mostly R0 with a chance for
isolated R1 flares over 13-15 Jun. Several filament eruptions
were observed on UT day 12-Jun, mostly in the northern solar
hemisphere. A large filament erupted from the northern limb from
0241 UT. A CME was observed from 12/0336 UT in SOHO imagery,
but is not expected to be geoeffective. Several smaller CMEs
were observed throughout the UT day, but none are considered
geoeffective. There is currently a large filament in the southwest
solar quadrant and any eruption may potentially have some geoeffective
component.
This feature is currently stable though, and will be monitored
carefully. The solar wind speed on UT day 12-Jun was variable
and ranged between 417 to 487 km/s. The peak interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component
range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
near moderate levels on 13-Jun due to a possible glancing blow
from a CME first observed on 09-Jun. Background levels may be
expected on 14-Jun, and then increase again on 14-Jun due to
an equatorial coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11101110
Cocos Island 2 11111110
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 4 21111112
Learmonth 3 11211110
Alice Springs 1 11101100
Gingin 1 11100010
Canberra 1 11100100
Hobart 1 11001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 10001000
Casey 4 22211111
Mawson 8 23211133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3322 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 11 G0
14 Jun 8 G0
15 Jun 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 12-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 13-15 Jun. A weak glancing blow
from a CME may arrive on 13-Jun, but is not expected to induce
significant geomagnetic activity. A possible isolated period
of G1 may be experienced on 15-Jun due to an
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 12-Jun were mostly
normal during local daylight hours and fair during local night
hours. HF conditions are expected to continue to be normal to
fair over 13-15 Jun, with mildly degraded conditions most likely
during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 98
Jun 88
Jul 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-Jun were
mostly near predicted values in the Australian region. Spread-F
was observed at Darwin, Hobart and Townsville during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 13-15
Jun. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during
local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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